South Africa’s producer price index (PPI) rose by 7,5% year-on-year (y/y) in June from a 5,9% y/y increase in May, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Thursday.
The PPI rose 3% on a monthly basis after May’s monthly rise of 0,9%. The PPI was expected to have risen to 6,3% y/y, a survey of economists by I-Net Bridge found, with forecasts ranging from 5,1% y/y to 6,5% y/y.
“This is a bad one,” said Dawie Roodt, the chief economist at the Efficient Group.
“Our expectations up to now have been for two 50 basis point rate increases, but now we may have to raise this to a third 50 basis point increase. This is not good news.”
Mike Schussler, economist at T-Sec said: “What a shock to the system! It will be very bad for the bond market, it will increase the risk of interest rate hikes — not only in August but in October and even December. I hope oil is the cause and not other things. This is probably not good for equities either but neutral for the rand.”
Colen Garrow, economist at Brait said the figure was worse than expected.
“I think the Reserve Bank will respond. It does indicate that second or third round influences are coming through and the response will be a rate hike next week, probably of 50 basis points.
Annabel Bishop, economist at Investec said: “PPI inflation ratcheted up dramatically in June on the back of a sharp hike in electricity prices [1,4% of the total 3% m/m increase] and, to a lesser extent, upward pressure from oil prices [0,9% of the total 3% m/m increase].
“There was also some evidence of imported inflationary pressure. We believe PPI inflation will continue to rise over the remainder of the year, climbing to 10% by December.
“We still believe interest rates will be hiked by another 50bp this year, although the possibility of this increase now being moved to August [instead of our previous forecast of October] is growing.”
Dennis Dykes, Nedbank economist: “The PPI figure was higher than what we expected at 6,5% and what the market expected at 6,3%. The market had expected
a worsening in PPI due to the increase in electricity tariffs as well as the higher oil price, weaker rand and food prices. A 50-basis-point hike in interest rates is fairly likely at the August Monetary Policy Committee meeting.” – I-Net Bridge