Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa has won applause from foreign donors for his economic and anti-corruption record in Africa’s largest copper producer.
But while Zambia has avoided the kind of strife that has plagued some of its neighbours, that hasn’t made its politics any more predictable. Mwanawasa is now seeking a second term in a September 28 poll whose outcome is far from certain.
In April, Mwanawasa suffered a stroke, casting doubt on his health and giving an opening to opponents who say his Movement for Multiparty Democracy has not aided Zambia’s impoverished majority.
But the conventional wisdom was scrambled again in May when Mwanawasa’s strongest rival, Anderson Mazoka, died of kidney failure in a South African hospital, plunging the opposition into disarray.
Now, as Zambians prepare for their fourth national election since one-party rule ended in 1991, all bets are off.
”There are a lot of factors at play … It’s difficult to predict,” said Fred Mutesa, a development studies professor at the University of Zambia. ”All being equal, the only one who seems to be benefiting from the confusion is Mr Mwanawasa.”
After returning from London, where doctors gave him a clean bill of health, Mwanawasa last week dissolved Parliament and Cabinet and set the election date — catching opposition parties unprepared.
Opposition leaders question whether Mwanawasa is fit to run, alternating between accusations of a cover-up and polite suggestions that he resign for his own health.
Benny Tetamashimba, the outgoing Deputy Minister of Information and Broadcasting, says the president’s rivals want to distract attention from his achievements.
”They talk about the health of the president because none of them has the capacity to do better than what President Mwanawasa has done economically,” Tetamashimba said at his office in the capital, Lusaka. ”The kwacha is strong, the economy is strong, the Americans are here praising us.”
After years of liberalisation, Zambia’s economy grew at a 5% clip in 2005 and inflation has dropped below 10% in recent months.
Foreign donors have agreed to cancel all but $500-million of Zambia’s $7,2-billion external debt. Combined with high global copper prices, an influx of foreign aid and investor confidence, Zambia’s currency — the kwacha — has surged against the dollar.
The strong kwacha, however, has been hurting exporters. And while foreign mining companies have increased investment, critics say government tax policy does not allow Zambia enough of the benefits.
Opposition leaders charge government isn’t spending enough on health and education in a country where formal employment remains low: 64% of the 11-million population lives on less than a dollar a day, 16% are infected with HIV and doctors are leaving for better opportunities abroad.
”So-called economic gains begin to look cosmetic when you begin to see them against economic deprivation … and the condition of the schools,” Patrick Chisanga, spokesperson for the main opposition United Party for National Development (UPND), said in an interview.
Mwanawasa’s campaign against corruption has also received mixed reviews.
He took on the anti-graft mantle in an effort to gain legitimacy after a disputed election that drew criticism from observers in 2001. An Anti-Corruption Commission was established, and critics were surprised when charges were brought against Mwanawasa’s former benefactor, retired President Frederick Chiluba.
Mwanawasa ”turned out to be much more independent than many people expected”, said Neo Simutanyi, a political analyst at Lusaka’s Institute for Social and Economic Research.
The initiative won donor support. In May, the United States administration promised Zambia $24,3-million in new assistance. But while there has been progress recovering real estate and embezzled funds, there has only been one low-level corruption conviction.
Alfred Chanda, president of Transparency International’s Zambia chapter, said the campaign has been selective, targeting allies of Chiluba who remained a powerful threat to Mwanawasa until he, too, fell ill.
The campaign also has not focused on wider corruption in a society where rural voters expect gifts from their candidates, Chanda said.
Civil society and church groups were disappointed when Mwanawasa postponed until next year debate on a new Constitution that would require a presidential candidate to win at least 51% of the vote or face a run-off. Mwanawasa took office with only 29%.
With questions mounting about Mwanawasa’s support, three opposition parties united in early 2006 with Mazoka, a former businessman who narrowly lost the presidency in 2001, as their presumed standard-bearer.
Mazoka’s death evoked an outpouring of public sympathy but threw the alliance into a divisive leadership battle.
The UPND, which draws its greatest support from the south and dominates the alliance, chose businessman Haikande Hichilema as its new candidate July 11.
Michael Sata, a populist former minister who now heads the rival Patriotic Front, has emerged as a dark-horse threat, though his support outside the rural and largely Bemba-speaking Northern Province is uncertain.
Nobody has matched the national recognition held by Mazoka, a handicap in a country where parties are based more on personalities than ideologies.
Moreover, despite pledges not to dip into state funds, Mwanawasa controls resources as well as the election schedule. By setting the poll for late September, he ensured a short campaign and gave his opponents little time to organise — factors analysts say are almost certain to favour the incumbent. — Sapa-AP