/ 7 August 2006

Mark of global warfare

July was the grimmest month for conflict prevention globally in three years, according to the respected International Crisis Group (ICG), which is an independent NGO working to resolve deadly conflict.

In 36 months of publishing its monthly Crisis Watch the ICG said in a statement that it has not recorded such severe deteriorations in so many conflict situations as in the past month, and several have significant regional and global implications.

In addition to the full-scale conflict that has erupted in the Middle East between Israel and Hizbollah in south Lebanon, the Horn of Africa also showed ominous signs of breakdown.

The ICG has warned that Somalia sits on the brink of all-out civil war, which is drawing in the wider region: Ethiopian troops entered Somalia to support the transitional fedearal government and Eritrea is arming the opposing Union of Islamic Courts.

In Sudan, implementation of the Darfur Peace Agreement was at a standstill, with rebels split, and fighting, over the agreement.

But the ICG says in its Crisis Watch that there was some good news too. Four situations showed improvement in the past month. The Democratic Republic of Congo held its first elections in 40 years. The Angolan government signed a ceasefire agreement with Cabindan separatists.

For August CrisisWatch identifies Israel/Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Somalia and Sri Lanka as risk alerts.

One conflict-resolution opportunity is identified in Uganda. This week Ugandan Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebel leader Joseph Kony called for a ceasefire with the government, during his first appearance at peace talks to end the 20-year insurgency in northern Uganda, where the LRA has killed and maimed thousands.