Jake White and the Springboks have had three weeks to reflect. They lost their last Tri-Nations game against Australia by two points, a 47-point improvement on the previous meeting between the two sides. A week earlier they had been competitive against the All Blacks before being fairly comprehensively beaten.
A headmaster’s report card would reflect a steady improvement and note that with a three-week series of home games the boys could be expected to get back to winning ways. But that was before New Zealand wrapped up the Tri-Nations with a month to spare.
Amid all the hand-wringing over Springbok and Wallaby deficiencies by their respective media and publics, that last fact should not be forgotten. The misguided decision to extend the Tri-Nations by an extra round was designed to improve revenue by extending the competitive life of the series.
No one anticipated one team being so dominant, although given that this is the Kiwis’ seventh title in 11 years, perhaps they should have.
Now the All Blacks, like some latter-day Barbarian touring team, are in South Africa for a two-week holiday with some rugby thrown in.
Their coach, Graham Henry, has done his opposite number the honour of selecting Richie McCaw and Daniel Carter for this week’s encounter at Loftus. In the unlikely event that his team should lose, however, don’t expect to see the best two players in the world take the field in Rustenburg next week.
The Slide of Courage at the Valley of the Waves and the Gary Player Country Club are likely to see more of the pair than the Royal Bafokeng stadium.
So does the non-competitive nature of the next fortnight’s fixtures suggest the Springboks are in for an easy ride? Does it, hell. Henry has made 11 changes to the team that beat Australia in Auckland last week, but there is a grain of truth to White’s contention that Henry has selected his strongest back line.
If you wanted to pick holes in that argument you might point out that Luke McAlister, a flyhalf, is playing at inside centre, while Malili Muliaina, a fullback, is playing at outside centre. You might even dredge up the damage done to a great New Zealand team when erstwhile coach John Hart moved Christian Cullen from fullback to outside centre ahead of the 1999 World Cup.
But that would be picking holes in Henry’s undeniably effective strategy. The proof of the pudding is in the eating and on Saturday, if New Zealand devour South Africa, no one would be terribly surprised, especially those who recall what happened the last time the Springboks hosted the All Blacks at Loftus Versfeld.
In case you have forgotten, the Boks lost 16-52 in 2003, conceding a record defeat to a fourth nation in eight matches, after demolitions by France, Scotland and England on the end-of-season tour in 2002.
In mitigation, White’s team has beaten New Zealand twice in a row at home since that melancholy July day in 2003. Indeed, their 22-16 win in Cape Town last year was the last time the All Blacks suffered a defeat of any kind.
It’s not all doom and gloom for the Boks, though. The reunited centre pairing of Jaque Fourie and the fit-again Jean de Villiers is sure to ask a few more subtle questions of the All Black defence than any of its predecessors this year. In addition, the presence on the bench of both Andre Pretorius and Ruan Pienaar offers White the opportunity to change gear at any time. Those are the positives, but key areas remain weak.
Percy Montgomery is set to break all kinds of records due to his longevity, but while his hair is almost as long as it was in his prime, he is no Samson eyeless in Gaza, about to give us one last display of power. In fact, Loftus was the scene of Monty’s worst nightmare against the All Blacks in 1999, when his poor positional play meant he spent the afternoon chasing balls kicked over his head by the canny visitors.
White has also persevered with a dysfunctional back row, bereft of pace and dexterity. Almost exactly 12 months ago, the coach had the temerity to ”rest” Schalk Burger for the Test against Australia at Loftus.
This year has shown the folly of that move and White would give his eye teeth to be able to call on Burger this week. The colossus of Wellington might have been the difference between winning and losing.