United States President George Bush demanded that there be ”consequences” for Iran after it ignored a United Nations Security Council deadline on Thursday to suspend part of its nuclear programme. Washington wants UN sanctions imposed on Tehran as quickly as possible, but the security council is seriously divided.
In a defiant speech to cheering crowds during a regional tour, the Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said the country would not be bullied. The Iranian government has hinted at retaliatory action if sanctions are imposed.
The way to sanctions was opened yesterday when the Security Council received a negative report from Mohamed El Baradei, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. It confirmed that, as of Tuesday, the last day that its inspectors were able to carry out observations: ”Iran has not suspended its enrichment activities.” It also said that three years of IAEA investigations still had not been able to confirm ”the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme because of lack of cooperation from Tehran”.
The Security Council is due to meet next week to begin discussion on a new resolution to impose sanctions, but the negotiations could take months. Russia and China, which have close economic ties with Iran and are veto-wielding permanent members of the Security Council, are lukewarm about punitive measures.
Britain and France, also permanent members, have positioned themselves between the US and Russia and China: prepared to back sanctions while leaving open the prospect of further negotiations with Tehran.
The Security Council is unlikely to meet until after talks between the European Union foreign affairs chief, Javier Solana, and Iran’s head of national security, Ali Larijani. They spoke by telephone on Thursday and agreed to a face-to-face meeting soon, possibly within days.
Bush, underlining Washington’s increasing impatience, said Tehran had reacted with defiance and delaying tactics in response to the UN deadline. ”It is time for Iran to make a choice,” he told a convention of US veterans. ”We’ve made our choice. We will continue to work closely with our allies to find a diplomatic solution, but there must be consequences for Iran’s defiance and we must not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.”
John Bolton, Washington’s hawkish ambassador to the UN, said it was time for the Security Council to draw up sanctions against Tehran. The IAEA report showed ”ample evidence” of Iran’s defiance and obstructionism, he said, along with activities that would be ”simply inexplicable if their real purpose [were] a peaceful nuclear power programme”.
The Security Council, after three years of protracted negotiations with Iran, on July 31 agreed a resolution imposing a deadline of August 31 for Tehran to suspend its uranium enrichment programme, which the West sees as a step towards achieving a nuclear weapons capability. Iran says its nuclear programme is purely for civilian purposes.
President Ahmadinejad, in a speech at Orumiyeh, said: ”The Iranian nation will not succumb to bullying, invasion and the violation of its rights.” He said enemies of the country were trying to stir up differences among the Iranian people, but ”I tell them ‘you are wrong. The Iranian nation is united’.” The Iranian government claims the US and European countries are covertly trying to undermine it by stirring up ethnic unrest.
As well as finding that Iran had failed to suspend uranium enrichment, the IAEA report expressed concern about new findings of minute particles of highly-enriched uranium at a university involved in possible military work. It also said that the Iranians were no longer allowing it access to suspicious diagrams related to a warhead, and that there had been a bar, albeit temporary, on allowing the IAEA inspectors access to an underground facility.
Muhammad Saeedi, the deputy head of Iran’s nuclear programme, offered a different interpretation of the IAEA report from that of the US and the EU, insisting that it had failed to prove that Tehran’s intentions were anything other than peaceful. He said the report confirmed that Iran had been working within the legal guidelines set down by the UN nuclear watchdog. ”Generally, although this report has not fully satisfied us, it shows that America’s propaganda and politically motivated claims over Iran’s nuclear programme are baseless and based on American officials’ hallucinations,” he told Iran’s official news agency IRNA.
FAQ
What happens now?
UN resolution 1696 says that if Iran fails to comply with the deadline the ”intention” was to adopt ”appropriate measures” under article 41: the article that deals with sanctions.
Will sanctions be imposed?
Of the five permanent members, the US wants sanctions almost immediately, Britain and France are prepared to allow for further talks, and Russia and China want to slow the process even further. Discussions could begin next week and may take months.
What sanctions are likely?
Relatively light ones that would target ministers, officials and scientists in the form of travel bans and a freeze on foreign assets.
What would be the consequences?
Iran could respond by withdrawing from the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, barring UN inspectors.
And in the longer-term?
Iran holds most of the cards. But the US still has options, the most extreme of which would be a military strike on Iranian nuclear plants. An alternative would be to stir up Iran’s minorities, a move Tehran fears. If Russia and China refuse to back sanctions, the US could organise a coalition of willing countries, including Britain, France and Germany, to join it in implementing sanctions. Or America could open direct negotiations with Tehran. – Guardian Unlimited Â