The bitter war for the soul of the ANC is reviving interest in politics among ordinary people in the Eastern Cape.
ANC membership in the province’s seven regions has more than doubled ahead of the four-day provincial party conference, which started on Thursday. The conference will elect a new provincial ANC leadership which will, in turn, have a major impact on the national leadership struggle.
The meeting was to be addressed by President Thabo Mbeki on Friday.
Massive recruitment drives launched by the regions in a bid to influence congress voting have seen OR Tambo (Mthatha), previously the biggest ANC region in the country, settling for second place behind Amathole (East London), where party membership has swelled from 17 046 last year to 45 834.
OR Tambo, which had 25 142 members last year, has also ballooned to 44 800 members.
The front-runners for the ANC provincial chair are Stone Sizani, former education minister and a strong ally of Mbeki, and Jacob Zuma-backer Mcebisi Jonas, the former director of the Eastern Cape Development Corporation.
Together, the Amathole and OR Tambo regions will send 945 delegates to the congress — more than two-thirds of the total, with the former fielding 501 and the latter 444.
Sizani has the backing of Amathole, while OR Tambo is fully behind Jonas. However, a fierce contest between the two candidates will be fought in three apparently split regions: Chris Hani (Queenstown), Cacadu (Graaff-Reinet) and Alfred Nzo (Mount Frere). These could swing the chairmanship to either candidate.
The Mail & Guardian understands that Jonas has majority support in Chris Hani, the province’s third-largest region, with 26 000 members. Chris Hani has also shown massive growth — last year its membership stood at just more than 8 000.
It is followed by Alfred Nzo, which has tripled its membership from 5 565 last year to 18 000 and where Sizani is now the favoured candidate.
Cacadu is harder to call. Although it was originally behind Sizani, its regional general council deadlocked last week over who to back. It will be the target of intense lobbying during the conference.
Both candidates will also need support from smaller regions such as Nelson Mandela (Port Elizabeth) and Ukhahlamba. The M&G understands that Sizani has overwhelming support in the Mandela region, of which he is the chair, while Ukhahlamba, which initially backed Jonas, is now split.
Regional secretaries said this week that they had launched massive recruitment drives for new members to swing voting at the congress. The pattern could be emulated by other provinces in the run-up to their conferences.
Also up for grabs is the provincial secretary’s position, where Mbeki supporters and communists loyal to Zuma will go head to head. Contesting the post will be Phumulo Masualle, Eastern Cape SACP chairperson, and Siphato Handi, a boxing promoter.
Once again, the two largest regions are backing different horses. OR Tambo is behind Masualle and Amathole is endorsing Handi.
In a surprise move, the provincial ANC Youth League has nominated Handi for the secretary’s position and is backing Sizani — despite the unconditional support for Zuma stridently voiced by the league’s national structures.
Some party leaders believe Masualle, as the more senior ANC member, will blow Handi away. Sizani is also seen as carrying more political weight than Jonas.
Last-minute horse trading and lobbying is expected to be intense, as candidates cannot solely rely on the official position of the regions and branch delegates can be swayed to vote for a different candidate at the congress.
Said a party member: ”The situation is fluid until the elections start; there will be engagement throughout with branch delegates. It is really difficult to call who will win between the Mbeki and Zuma camps.”