Globalisation has left world employment mostly intact, despite gloomy economic forecasts predicting hefty job losses, according to a study published on Monday.
The study by the World Trade Organisation and the International Labour Office challenges the ”race-to-the-bottom view” that growing world trade would bring in terms of wages and the quality of employment.
Trade had expanded by almost 6% a year in the 10 years to 2005, driven by deeper regional integration and more outward-looking policies in emerging markets such as China and Mexico.
The sharp rise in foreign direct investment (FDI) by companies into China, East Asia and South American countries, which peaked in 2000, had also boosted trade flows.
At the same time, global employment levels had shown ”few dramatic shifts” in the past two decades with the world’s workforce at 2,8-billion in 2005.
Unemployment levels had improved in industrialised countries, since the sharp rise in the 1970s, while developing countries had seen a slight increase in unemployment.
The fear that the emergence of China, as the world’s economic factory, and India, as the world economy’s office, would mean a loss of jobs in other regions has so far failed to be borne out.
”Although trade and FDI were playing an increasing role in the global economy, most jobs in the world have yet to be directly affected by these developments,” the study finds.
Despite the expansion in world trade, the bulk of jobs in industrialised and developing countries is still centred on non-tradable services or activities.
However, the report warns, the growing demand for skilled labour, which then commands a premium, threatens to fuel wage inequalities.
Developing countries in particular need to face the challenge of implementing appropriate economic and social policies to offset imbalances, the study says. — Sapa-dpa