Driven by increased concerns and mounting evidence of the threats posed by global warming, some of the world’s most eminent scientists are telling policymakers to get their act together before it is too late to avoid a doomsday scenario.
Releasing a new study entitled Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoidable, researchers said at United Nations headquarters on Tuesday that world leaders should take immediate steps to start reversing the upward trajectory of greenhouse-gas emissions, otherwise the current path would lead to ”serious” climate-change effects.
Prepared in response to a request by the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) two years ago, the 144-page study outlines a road map for measures to reduce dangerous emissions, alleviate poverty and spur sustainable development.
”It is still impossible to avoid an unmanageable degree of climate change, but the time for action is now,” John Holdren, a professor of environmental policy at Harvard University and one of the lead authors of the study, told reporters.
According to the study’s findings, the average global surface temperature has already risen about 0,8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and may rise by another two to four degrees by the end of this century.
‘Intolerable impacts’
Holdren and other authors of the study said the risk of climate change could entail ”intolerable impacts” if the average temperature level reached more than two degrees Celsius above the 1750 pre-industrial level.
They observed that the world is already experiencing climate disruptions, and the increases in droughts, floods and sea-level rise that will occur in the coming decades could lead to enormous human suffering and economic losses.
”We imperil our children’s and grandchildren’s future if we fail to improve society’s capacity to adapt to a changing climate,” said Rosina Bierbaum, former acting director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
Such an eventuality can be avoided, she went on to say, ”if we manage water better, bolster disaster preparedness, increase surveillance for emerging diseases, make cities more resilient, prepare for environmental refugees and use natural resources more sustainably.”
Other experts told reporters the goal to halt temperature increases beyond two to 2,5 degrees Celsius is achievable if policymakers are willing to follow their recommendations for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
That demands stabilising atmospheric concentrations at the equivalent of no more than 450 000 parts per million of carbon dioxide (compared with parts per million carbon dioxide equivalent today), according to the study. This would require global carbon-dioxide emissions to peak no later than 2015 to 2020 at not much above their current level and decline by 2100 to about one-third of that value.
Immediate steps
The study’s authors urged policymakers to take immediate steps for energy efficiency in the transport sector, environmental measures in urban construction, and expanded use of biofuels and other renewable sources.
”These steps will contribute to achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals; failing to do so will make these goals much harder, if not impossible, to reach,” said Peter Raven, a biodiversity expert and former president of Sigma Xi, a United States-based research group with more than 60 000 members worldwide that carried out the study in collaboration with the UN Foundation.
Calling for increased cooperation among all UN member states, Raven and others said they believe the use of environmentally friendly technologies could prove not only greatly helpful in reducing emissions, but also in providing other economic and social benefits.
However, they noted that the current levels of public and private investment in research, development and pre-commercial deployment in energy-efficient technologies are still far from desirable.
”Current levels of investment [in this area] are not even close to commensurate with the size of the challenge and the extent of the opportunities,” they said, adding that the UN should promote public-private partnerships that increase private-sector financing for renewable energy efficiency and investments.
Some members of the panel also expressed grave concern over the rapid loss of biodiversity as a result of climate change, while pointing to the need for speedy actions for sustainable use of resources.
”We are living in such an unsustainable way that, in much of the southern hemisphere, huge assemblies of species will be lost,” Raven said. ”Our sense of social justice and morality will depend on reversing the loss of biodiversity.”
Recommendations
The recommendations from the 20-member panel of scientific experts on climate change, sustainable development and biodiversity will be considered by the UN Commission on Sustainable Development when it meets in May.
Members of the panel told reporters that their findings fully complemented the recent summary report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The IPCC’s full climate-science report will be released later in the year, as will other chapters looking at the possible effects of climate change, options for adapting to those effects and potential ways to lower greenhouse-gas emissions.
The IPCC adopted the summary for policymakers in the first volume of Climate Change 2007, also known as the Fourth Assessment Report. It assesses the current scientific knowledge of the natural and human drivers of climate change and projections for future climate change.
The report was produced by about 600 authors from 40 countries. More than 620 expert reviewers and a large number of government reviewers also participated in the review process. — IPS