Britain is making contingency plans for the post-Mugabe era in Zimbabwe in the belief that the president — under increasing pressure from within his own party as well as from the opposition and a plummeting economy — may not last the year.
A senior Foreign Office official said that 2007 would be ”a pivotal year … There will be significant change this year. Time is critical. If there is one thing Zimbabwe does not have, it’s time.”
Even if Mugabe were ousted by a palace coup and replaced by someone from the ruling party tainted by its corrupt and brutal track record, Britain would be prepared to lift Zimbabwe’s isolation on condition that the new government showed a commitment to reform, the official said.
In recent days, the 83-year-old Zimbabwean president has resorted to blatant strong-arm tactics against the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). But British officials believe an even more potent threat to his rule is the combination of further economic meltdown, with inflation expected to reach 5 000% by the summer, and the possibility of a putsch from within Mugabe’s increasingly restive Zanu-PF party.
”The economy and party will be the two main drivers of change,” the Foreign Office official said. ”If one faction succeeded in easing him out and wished to re-engage with the international community, we would look closely at what that faction stood for.”
There would be three main criteria for Britain to engage with a new government, no matter what its complexion: macroeconomic stabilisation — for example, an end to printing money to finance government spending; the restoration of the rule of law by depoliticising the police and judiciary, and the end of state violence against civilians and opposition members.
Britain also plans to begin talks with Zimbabwe’s donors and neighbours to coordinate post-Mugabe plans.
Among potential successors to Mugabe are senior party figures tainted by Zanu-PF’s history of corruption and brutality. Possible successors include Simba Makoni, a former minister, Solomon Mujuru, a retired general and businessman, or the former parliamentary speaker, Emmerson Mnangagwa. Mujuru’s wife, Joyce, is the Vice-President, and was once seen as a strong challenger, but her star is now believed to be waning.
The Zanu-PF party stood up to Mugabe for the first time in its history in December, by refusing to agree to extend his presidency until 2010.
Christopher Dell, the US ambassador in Harare, said on Thursday that Zanu-PF was in disarray as its factions jostled for power, and growing numbers of party members wanted Mugabe to step down. ”He’s not prepared to go down without a fight, but he is weaker than he’s ever been because the economy has made him weaker and everyone recognises that he’s 83 years old,” he told the Associated Press.
The apparently concerted ratcheting up of British and American pressure on Mugabe comes at a time when his former allies are distancing themselves from him. On his previous two visits to Africa, the Chinese President, Hu Jintao, left Zimbabwe off his itinerary, while the South African government of Thabo Mbeki appears to have dropped its laissez-faire attitude to Zimbabwe’s internal politics. South Africa already hosts three million Zimbabwean refugees, with the risk of another two million flooding in if conditions worsen.
Representatives from both factions of the divided MDC are flying to South Africa from Harare for discussions with the government in Pretoria, sources from both sides of the MDC confirmed in Harare. Tendai Biti, secretary general of Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC, and Welshman Ncube, secretary general of the breakaway faction, are expected to hold talks with senior South African government officials on Friday afternoon.
The South African government received assurances from the Mugabe government that the two opposition politicians would be able to travel safely. This was necessary because an MDC spokesperson, Nelson Chamisa, was beaten unconscious at Harare airport when he attempted to fly to Brussels to attend an EU parliamentary conference earlier this week.
The Pretoria talks represent a new effort by Mbeki’s government to bring Zanu-PF and the MDC to the negotiating table to find a resolution to Zimbabwe’s crisis. South Africa’s ambassador to Harare visited Tsvangirai at home on Monday and held talks with him for 90 minutes.
South Africa has urged the Mugabe government to obey the rule of law and allow opposition parties to operate freely. Zambia’s President, Levy Mwanawasa, has made similar statements and pledged that when he becomes chairperson of the 14-nation Southern African Development Community this year, he will concentrate on getting all sides to the negotiating table. The Tanzanian President, Jakaya Kikwete, has also spoken of the need for the SADC to find solutions to Zimbabwe’s crisis.
These efforts represent a significant new push by southern African leaders. All SADC members — with the glaring exception of Zimbabwe — have seen positive economic growth and democratic stabilisation in recent years. Zimbabwe is out of step with the rest of the region and the SADC’s leaders increasingly see Mr Mugabe’s leadership as a liability, say African diplomats in Pretoria.
Waiting in the wings
Emmerson Mnangagwa
A veteran party loyalist currently serving as the minister of rural housing, he is particularly tainted by his past as state security minister at a time of mass killings of members of the Ndebele tribe in the south-west of the country.
Solomon Mujuru
A hero from the war of liberation, when his nom de guerre was Rex Nhongo. He was Zimbabwe’s army chief until 1995, but was not directly implicated in the Ndebeleland killings. He is now a businessman and landowner, tainted by his involvement in illegal land-grabs.
Simba Makoni
A former finance minister and technocrat forced out of office by party rivals in 2002. He has the cleanest hands of the party challengers and his chances have strengthened since General Mujuru appears to have withdrawn support from his wife, Joice, the current vice-president. – Guardian Unlimited Â