Relations between Chad and Sudan are unlikely to improve despite a recent peace deal, and in the short term may even lead to more conflict, say analysts.
It was hoped that the peace deal, brokered in Saudi Arabia last week and signed by both countries’ presidents, would help ease tensions along the Chad-Sudan border. But observers in the Chadian capital are not convinced.
“It’s an empty deal,” said Dr Mahamat Ahmat Hassan, a political analyst in N’Djamena. “It serves no purpose and, like all the previous peace deals the two countries have struck, was only signed as a gesture of goodwill.”
At the heart of the dispute between Chad and Sudan is the fact that both countries are openly supporting rebels who are trying to bring down the other’s government.
The deal, signed in Riyadh, says both presidents must make efforts to stop supporting rebels from the other side, but there is scepticism about how this will work in practice.
Sudanese rebels, many of whom are Zaghawa and from the same clan as Chadian President Idriss Deby, are comfortably installed in N’Djamena and hundreds more have effectively become part of Chad’s national army.
“Deby will not be able to push out the Sudanese rebels, this is totally unrealistic,” a diplomat in N’Djamena told the Mail & Guardian.
“He is basically supporting his own relatives; most of them have Chadian papers and are practically running the Chadian army. Deby can never push them out and Sudan knows this well.”
Sudanese President Omar alBashir also stands accused of supporting Chadian rebels, although in a slightly less visible manner.
Following the signing of the Riyadh peace deal, Sudan has reportedly asked the Chadian rebels to move back across the border into Chad. But observers say this will aggravate rather than calm tensions.
Eastern Chad is now said to be packed with rebels, and the recent large-scale deployment of Chadian troops to the border area has sparked speculation that more fighting is imminent. “A dramatic situation is looming in Chad,” said the diplomatic source. “Deby wants to clean out the area of rebels once and for all. All his troops have been deployed and they are preparing an offensive.”
With the rainy season in Chad just around the corner, Deby is under particular pressure to act before the terrain becomes impassable.
“The president reckons he can now beat the rebels,” said Hassan. “He’s bought lots of new arms, including tanks and helicopters, and thinks he can finish them off. The rebels know they will be attacked very soon, and they know it will be a fight of either survival or suicide.”
Much of the international community, including the United Nations and the United States government, believes that hostilities between Chad and Sudan will only be eased once the Darfur crisis is resolved.
When the US Special Envoy for Sudan, Andrew Natsios, visited Chad earlier this year, he declared the two countries engaged in a “quiet war” and said troubles in Darfur were at the heart of regional tensions.
But with the situation in Darfur as calamitous as ever, there is little hope for a peaceful resolution.
The Chadian rebels’ main weakness is that they are a divided force, with several different groups vying for power and unable to agree on a joint battle plan.
The Chadian army is notoriously weak and its soldiers are often reluctant to fight. But they benefit from support from rebels belonging to the Sudanese Justice for Equality Movement and growing numbers of Chadian militia.
“Make no mistake, there will be more fighting,” said Hassan. “This peace deal won’t lead to peace — anything but. It will simply lead to more war.”