A poor harvest due to adverse weather coupled with a worsening economic crisis will leave more than four million people in Zimbabwe in need of food assistance by early next year, according to a report issued on Tuesday by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP).
Because of crop failures in southern provinces and escalating poverty in both rural and urban areas, 2,1-million people will face serious food shortages as early as the third quarter of 2007, the report noted.
“The number of people at risk will peak at 4,1-million in the first three months of 2008 — more than a third of Zimbabwe’s estimated population of 11,8-million,” it said.
An estimated 352Â 000 tonnes of cereals and 90Â 000 tonnes of other food assistance will be required to meet their basic food needs, according to the Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission report, based on a joint mission to Zimbabwe by the two UN agencies from April 25 to May 18.
“While drought devastated crops in many areas, Zimbabwe’s overall production was also hampered by insufficient fertiliser, fuel and tractors and by the country’s crumbling irrigation system,” said Henri Josserand, chief of FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System.
“Most importantly, uneconomic prices set by the government have discouraged many farmers from producing surplus cereals for sale.”
These factors resulted in a 6% decrease in the amount of land planted with cereals compared with last year, and a substantial reduction in the average yield per hectare. Overall, the mission estimates that the April/May 2007 harvest in Zimbabwe is just 925Â 000 tonnes of cereals, including 799Â 000 tonnes of maize and 126Â 000 tonnes of sorghum and millet — a 44% decline from last year’s official estimated output.
The worst-affected provinces are Matabeleland South, Matabeleland North and Midlands, where many families harvested nothing and could run out of food as early as July. Cereal harvest in Manicaland and Masvingo was also about half last year’s.
“Zimbabwe’s looming food crisis is the result of another poor harvest, exacerbated by the country’s unprecedented economic decline, extremely high unemployment and the impact of HIV/Aids,” said Amir Abdulla, WFP’s regional director for Southern Africa.
The report estimates that about one million people in urban areas will face food shortages over the coming months and could need food assistance. However, additional assessments are required to refine these figures.
Taking into consideration the forthcoming October wheat crop and current stocks, the report estimated that domestic cereal availability is 1,29-million tonnes against a total national utilisation of 2,34-million tonnes — leaving over a million tonnes to be imported. — I-Net Bridge