The European Union agreed to a deal this week that will see a joint United Nations-EU force of up to 3 000 personnel deployed to eastern Chad to manage the continuing insecurity along the border with Darfur.
It is hoped that the force will be deployed as early as October, especially after Chad’s President, Idriss Deby Itno, publicly accepted the deployment of foreign troops during a recent visit to France.
Deby has long spoken of his desire to see an international force sent into Chad to secure the 1 000km-long border with Sudan, but balked at the idea of a UN military force. However, he appears to have softened his position somewhat now, saying he will accept European troops, the majority of which will be French.
While France will provide most of the soldiers for the EU-led military component, the UN will provide personnel to act as police. Observers in N’Djamena believe Deby accepted the force after agreeing finally with the French that they would take charge of the military deployment.
”The biggest winner here is France,” a diplomat in N’Djamena told the Mail & Guardian. ”They pushed Deby to say ‘no’ to the original idea and later convinced him to say ‘yes’, provided the troops would be French … They are looking to send in at least 1 000 extra troops, which will ensure France has a say in what happens in Darfur.”
Some people question France’s real motivation for wanting to send in more soldiers.
France, the former colonial power in Chad, already has more than 1 000 troops stationed in the country, mainly in the east, and has faced criticism for backing Deby’s regime and helping him fend off several rebel attacks.
”The French army has intervened against rebel actions and continues to support the Chadian army,” said Mahamat Saleh Makki, a member of Chad’s opposition coalition. ”They are intervening militarily in what is an internal problem for Chad. It’s clear that if the French come in, they might be under an EU mandate, but in reality they will continue to support both regimes.”
Question marks also remain over how the troops will be received on the ground and if the Chadian rebels will see the EU soldiers as possible targets for attack.
The rebels are now negotiating in Tripoli with the Chadian government. If a peace deal can be struck, it’s possible that insecurity along the border will ease, at least in the short term.
”There is a fatigue on both sides,” said the diplomatic source.
”Both the rebels and the government are running out of steam.” Talks are progressing, albeit slowly, and there is hope a compromise can be reached. Both [Moammar] Gadaffi and the French absolutely want a reconciliation with the rebels,” said a political observer in N’Djamena.
”The rebels have given up on Deby changing the constitution so now they are looking at a power-sharing deal.”
The source said the sticking point in the negotiation is exactly how much Deby is willing to compromise. The president reportedly wants an ”open” government, with him determining who joins, while the rebels want a proper, power-sharing deal, as well as a promise that transparent elections will be held.
”The rebels will accept an open government, as long as the issue of elections can be agreed,” said the source. ”The rebels are weak – they do not hold any territory and Sudan has stopped supporting them.”
Many observers say the reason Sudan recently stopped supporting the Chadian rebels is because Khartoum is eager to curry favour with the international community in a last-ditch effort to avoid UN troops being sent into Darfur.
Instability in Chad’s eastern provinces has already cost the country dearly. At a recent donors’ conference in N’Djamena, the country’s finance minister sounded alarm bells about the state of Chad’s budget and publicly stated that at least $160-million had been used on ”exceptional security expenditure”; in other words, fighting the war in the east. But despite the fact that Deby has spent so heavily, observers said he regards it as money well spent, as long as it keeps him in power.
Meanwhile, there are signs that the dynamics of insecurity on the border are becoming even more complicated.
While much of the inter-ethnic conflict in Chad, like that in Darfur, has been Arab on non-Arab, there are signs that Arab tribes are facing persecution now as well, with revenge as the key motive.
In the past few months about 30 000 Chadian Arabs have crossed the border into Sudan and have claimed refugee status.
The UN is urging caution until the reason for the exodus becomes clear, but Annetta Rehrl, UN High Commissioner for Refugees spokesperson in Khartoum, said: ”In principle, we are going to recommend that these people are granted prima facie refugee status.”
Several sources in N’Djamena claimed that Arabs feel they are in danger.
”It all started when the government of Chad began arming the local black population to protect themselves from attack,” an Arab with links to the regime told the M&G.
”There has always been friction between the Arabs and black tribes, but the problems have been politicised. If Arabs and non-Arabs do begin really fighting, the regime will support the black tribes and Arabs fear a massacre. That’s why they fled.”