A sense of frustration is creeping into various groupings within the tripartite alliance and the business community, which want businessman Cyril Ramaphosa to enter the succession race for the leadership of the ANC and the country.
Sections of the business community worry that the former general secretary of the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) might be running out of time because he has not yet indicated an interest in running for the ANC’s top job.
Having stayed clear of the divisive succession debate, Ramaphosa enjoys the support of several leaders in big business.
Jerry Vilakazi, the chief executive of Business Unity South Africa, says: “There are individuals within the broader business community who strongly support Cyril, but there has not been a platform where business has discussed its preferences.”
He warns that there is a “sense of frustration with the fact that business can do little to influence the internal processes” of the ANC. “I think business can influence the debate through the media.”
Michael Spicer, chief executive of Business Leadership South Africa, says the business community will not back individuals, but would prefer candidates who are business-friendly.
As a former unionist, Ramaphosa is expected to rely on the support of the NUM, the biggest affiliate of Cosatu. Yet Ramaphosa will be supported by the NUM only if Zuma does not stand.
Optimists suggest Ramaphosa could win the hearts and minds of cadres in Gauteng, where the broad tripartite alliance is not united behind one candidate.
“If he captures Gauteng and uses it as his launch pad, he is halfway there. Ramaphosa generally has support in groupings in all the provinces and his availability would slash the support of some of the current candidates,” says a member of the Eastern Cape executive committee.
It is generally accepted that any candidate hoping to contest the top job at Luthuli House should have a strong constituency in at least one of the three powerful provinces — Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal or Gauteng.
KwaZulu-Natal has already resolved to support Zuma, while the Eastern Cape ANC conference called for President Thabo Mbeki to stay for another term as party president.
Free State ANC secretary Charlotte Lobe says the party’s traditions do not promote careerism. “It is not too late yet for anyone to make himself available because the process of nomination has not started. Traditionally, branches look askance at people who campaign for positions ahead of party processes.”
Although Ramaphosa was Mbeki’s rival in the past, political analyst William Gumede suggests he might be able to count on Mbeki’s support this time. He says Mbeki would be more comfortable with Ramaphosa as the guardian of his legacy.
“Ramaphosa is unlikely to undo Mbeki’s economic reforms — and the president knows that — but before backing Ramaphosa openly, the president would need some assurance that his successor would not allow the critics who are silent now to erode his legacy with retrospective public judgement,” Gumede says in his book Thabo Mbeki and the Battle for the Soul of the ANC.