Last Thursday I had to take some deep breaths and remind myself to keep calm.
The night before the markets had bled even further and the headlines were dire. Newspapers showed market indices plunging straight down and shares I thought I had picked up at a good price the week before were now even cheaper and were showing red on my portfolio.
When the market first started its nosedive on July 23, it seemed as if it would be a short-lived correction and an excellent buying opportunity; it was, after all, down 7% in a couple of days. I had some cash available and thought I was extremely clever in buying Billiton at R194. The market picked up quickly and soon my Billitons were worth R204. Clever move, I thought. Then the market got shaky again. I was undaunted and decided to use the opportunity to sell some of my Metorex which, having run from R5 to R26, were making my portfolio look very lopsided. I used the funds to buy some more Billiton and Datatec.
However, on Thursday my Billiton shares were down 13% and my Datatec shares around 7%. I was silently kicking myself. “If only I had waited what if this carries on, what if this really is the end?” But then I noticed something. Metorex was trading at R20, down 23%. My switch had left me in a better situation than if I had done nothing. Then I started to see a bit more clearly.
First, my overall share portfolio is up big time since I started investing nearly three years ago. Since November 2005 the market overall is up 57%, despite this major sell-off. My construction stocks have held out well, hardly moving at all. Second, apart from stomach-curdling headlines about the market crashing, on the same day Standard Bank came out with better than expected earnings and Santam issued a cautionary that its earnings would be better than expected.
I reminded myself that what we are experiencing locally is simply a result of global uncertainty, not fundamental problems with the companies I have invested in or the South African economy.
The shares I invest in are all solid and have delivered on their earnings. Right now they might be under pressure, but I have time. I still believe this is just a bump in the road of equity investing and the sensible people will be looking to pick up shares at ridiculously low prices. I was further assured by one of South Africa’s leading fund managers, Kokkie Kooyman, who — at a presentation last week — called this a great buying opportunity. He is even undaunted by the fact that United States banks are crashing and burning, believing that there are some innocent victims over there that have been affected purely by association. He reckons his global value fund will have quite a high weighting in US financials this time next year as he picks up his favourite plays.