As any veteran of African National Congress conferences will tell you: delegates tend to back the leading horse. So, perceptions of which candidate has a nose in front when December comes are going to be crucial to the outcome of the leadership race.
That means action by the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) and the gathering momentum of Tokyo ÂSexwale’s campaign will be vital for Jacob Zuma’s prospects at the party’s Polokwane conference.
The outcome of this week’s Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) hearings is important for Zuma, not just legally but politically. He will almost certainly be recharged, but even if there is another round of delays and postponements, and even if he persists in running for leadership regardless, the court process could seriously damage him.
If the NPA is given the right to use material seized from Zuma’s attorney, Michael Hulley, it could lodge it and a detailed forensic report in the court record. That would make the material open to public scrutiny.
The prosecution team had the report at Zuma’s Pietermaritzburg High Court appearance a year ago, ready to hand it to the defence, and would need only to edit it to remove any material the SCA has deemed inadmissible.
Sources close to the NPA insist that it will not immediately lodge the file in court when charging Zuma, but concede that it will feature in any mistrial application by Zuma.
Prosecutors believe this material shows that more money flowed to Zuma under dubious circumstances than was revealed in the trial that led to the conviction of Schabir Shaik.
Nevertheless, a source close to Zuma says his political approach will be defined by Mbeki’s, rather than the status of the legal process: ‘If Mbeki stands, Zuma will stand,†he says.
Efforts to avoid a clash between the two men have so far come to naught.
According to one of Sexwale’s advisers, there is talk of a delegation of party veterans meeting Mbeki to ask him to withdraw.
Yet an intelligence source, who is usually well-informed on the Mbeki camp’s strategy, says the presiÂdent is determined to maintain his leadership of the party.
The candidacy of Sexwale will help the president in his fight against Zuma, a senior ANC national executive committee member explains. ‘There is no run-off vote at the conference: there is one voting round and the person with the most votes wins.â€
The perception is, he explains, that ‘Tokyo will draw more of the Zuma vote away if he stands than the Thabo vote — That’s why the Zuma camp has been attacking him so strongly.â€
While there have been denials of reports that people close to Mbeki, such as Essop Pahad, have encouraged Sexwale to stand, the presiÂdent and the presidency, normally not shy to single out enemies, have been uncharacteristically silent on Sexwale’s candidacy and his criticism of the ANC.
Pahad’s daughter, Amina, is one of the recipients of Sexwale’s Batho Bonke share distribution, as reported by City Press. She reportedly has 137 160 shares worth about R1,7-million. And at least one person perceived to be close to Sexwale, Western Cape party chair James Ngculu, has been crucial in shoring up the Mbeki faction in the province after making his peace with Premier ÂEbrahim Rasool.
According to one of Sexwale’s advisers, the mogul’s bid is serious: ‘He’s not going to back off; he’s going to Limpopo.†Sexwale’s pitch is to those who want neither Mbeki nor Zuma.
Interestingly, the Zuma and Mbeki camps see Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who was once married to Jacob Zuma, as a compromise candidate.
According to intelligence sources on different sides of the debate, Dlamini-Zuma is Mbeki’s preferred candidate, while another Zuma backer confirms there is a belief that she will not preside over his public humiliation in a drawn-out corruption trial should she become president.
Much is made of the claim — widely believed within the ANC — that she declined the deputy presidency of the country after Zuma was sacked.
The Sexwale campaign, which has failed to get a region to support his Âcandidacy, is relying on this fragmented landscape to mop up votes.
Regional party bosses are trying to influence which branches get to vote at Polokwane. Anger is growing over the apparent manipulation of credentials to ensure that branches perceived as hostile to the candidate preferred by regional and provincial officials are excluded on technical grounds.
The political climate will almost certainly get worse before it gets better, but some are sanguine. ‘It is crazy right now, but don’t worry, the ANC will make a sensible decision at the last minute,†one veteran underground operative says.