ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma’s campaign to become the country’s next president has been given a major boost. A survey of South Africa’s largest black township suggests he enjoys overwhelming support from ordinary South Africans, who want him to be their future leader.
The survey, of 2 400 residents of Soweto, was conducted by the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Sociology Research. It comes just two months before the ANC’s watershed elective conference in December.
The findings of the survey, the details of which were published in the South African Labour Bulletin this week, indicate growing levels of support for Zuma as the country’s future president.
This is despite growing speculation that the state may reinstate criminal charges against him in November.
Before it can charge Zuma, the National Prosecuting Authority is awaiting the judgement by the Supreme Court of Appeal on whether documents seized in a controversial raid on Zuma’s lawyers and arms firm Thint can be used in court.
The NPA appealed against last year’s ruling by the Durban High Court, which declared the 2005 raids on the properties of Zuma and his attorney, Michael Hulley, un-lawful. Zuma has said that he will stand in ANC elections, even if charged. His supporters see the threat of prosecution as a move to prevent him from taking over the party’s top job.
Although the survey is not a reflection of the national picture, Zuma supporters believe it is an indication that his support is swelling.
Of 2 400 respondents interviewed, more than half said they would like him to become South Africa’s next president. Slightly more than a quarter disagreed.
The survey shows that Zuma’s support comes mainly from people with poor backgrounds.
In contrast, people who described themselves as members of the middle or working classes were more likely not to support him.
The survey, conducted in June last year, found a connection between support for Zuma and lower levels of education.
Nearly eight out of 10 Zuma supporters were ANC members, but the majority of Inkhatha Freedom Party supporters and more than half the Democratic Alliance supporters surveyed also backed Zuma.
Only a few of those interviewed said they were from the South African Communist Party, the Azanian People’s Organisation or the labour union Cosatu. CSR researcher Claire Ceruti said it was highly plausible that the support for Zuma was motivated by the slow service delivery.
‘Unfortunately we did not ask a question about support for [President Thabo] Mbeki, so we cannot say to what extent the support for Zuma is a backlash against the president. But we do know that Zuma has been presented as part of the challenge to slow delivery,†said Ceruti.
Adam Habib, deputy vice-chancellor for research at the University of Johannesburg, said the outcome of the survey was not a surprise, as Zuma had proved popular among marginalised communities.
He said the survey would improve understanding of Zuma’s support base, showing that it did not lie in KwaZulu-Natal alone. ‘He is seen by many people as someone who speaks to the agenda of the poor,†said Habib.
Zuma supporters said this week that the survey makes it clear that his strategy of wooing support among ordinary people is starting to bear fruit. ‘We are not a group of the elite who look down at people,†said an ANC Youth League leader, who preferred to remain anonymous.
Zuma is likely to receive the support of all provinces at the ANC conference, except the Eastern Cape and Northern Cape, he said.