The British government has thrown its backing behind an ambitious Afghan strategy to split the Taliban by securing the defection of senior members of the militant group and large numbers of their followers.
The strategy, spearheaded by the Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, reflects a significant shift in British policy, and is showing initial signs of success. The Guardian newspaper in London is reporting that members of the Taliban’s leadership council have used go-betweens to negotiate their defection.
”There is a remarkable amount of contacts between senior and serious [Afghan] government figures with people who are in the Taliban movement,” said a senior British official. ”It is conceivable you could have chunks of the Taliban breaking off and giving up violence. Some have already done so.”
Tribal elders, former Taliban ministers and United Nations officials have opened multiple back- channels between the two sides.
As British troops are being withdrawn from Iraq, the military presence in southern Afghanistan is to be bolstered in the next few months by the deployment of the Parachute Regiment and new Eurofighter/Typhoon fighter-bombers.
At the same time, however, British officials have concluded that the Taliban is too deep-rooted to be eradicated by military means. Following a wide-ranging policy review accompanying Gordon Brown’s becoming the British premier, a decision was taken to put a much greater focus on courting ”moderate” Taliban leaders as well as ”tier two” footsoldiers, who fight more for money and out of a sense of tribal obligation than for the Taliban’s ideology.
Such a shift has put Britain and the Karzai government at odds with hawks in Washington, who are wary of Whitehall’s enthusiasm for talks with what they see as a monolithic terrorist group. But a British official said: ”Some Americans are coming around to our way of seeing this.”
A senior diplomatic source in Kabul confirmed the contact, but stressed it was one of multiple strands. ”This is not shaping up to be a single dialogue with a core Taliban entity,” he said. The source said many of the contacts were initiated by Taliban commanders themselves, dispirited by losses at the hands of a Nato bombing campaign and worried about the loss of the sanctuary in neighbouring Pakistan. Fighting raged in North Waziristan last week as Pakistani F16 warplanes bombed suspected Taliban and al-Qaeda positions.
”Effectively, what some of the commanders are offering is to capitulate,” he said. ”They are worried for their own skins and the skins of their families.” The official refused to quantify the contacts, only saying they were ”numerous”.
The Taliban leadership, which is under the influence of foreign al-Qaeda fighters, is thought to be vehemently opposed to talks. In a message released last week, group leader Mullah Muhammad Omar rebuffed an offer of talks from Karzai.
Some worry the talks are a Taliban stalling tactic at a time of intense military pressure. ”Everyone on the ground thinks they’ve had a real effect this year and they want to keep the pressure up through the winter,” said a Nato official. ”It’s in the Taliban’s interests to appear more conciliatory when they’re under pressure.”
The strategy is deeply controversial in Kabul, where memories of brutal Taliban rule in the Nineties are still fresh. ”It is a complete misunderstanding of the local situation to believe that negotiating with violent extremists will result in peace,” said Joanna Nathan of the International Crisis Group. ”This will simply add more fuel to the conflict, not quell it.” — Â