President Thabo Mbeki will strive to show he is still in charge of the country on Friday when he makes his first State of the Nation address since being ousted as leader of the ruling party in December.
Mbeki, who denies he is a lame duck, may be hard-pressed to prove to South Africans and foreign investors that he can tackle urgent issues such as the power-supply crisis that has damaged Africa’s biggest economy, analysts say.
In his speech to Parliament in Cape Town, Mbeki is expected to highlight his achievements and vow to ease widespread poverty, crime and the Aids pandemic. His perceived failures in tackling these problems contributed to his replacement by Jacob Zuma as leader of the African National Congress at the party’s Polokwane conference in December.
Zuma, front-runner to succeed Mbeki as head of state in 2009, has already begun to eclipse his rival through control of the party.
Zuma’s links with trade unions have unsettled investors and businesses, who fear he could reverse the liberal reforms of the past decade. His trial in August for money-laundering, racketeering, fraud and corruption — charges which he denies — have added to the uncertainty.
Markets are nervous over the ongoing electricity-supply crisis that has already forced a five-day mines shutdown in the country, an important gold and platinum producer.
Political intrigue
Reinhard Cluse, senior Europe, Middle East and Africa economist at UBS bank in London, said worries would deepen if Mbeki did not offer a detailed plan to tackle the crisis. ”There needs to be a real, concerted decisive action,” he said. ”Mbeki appears to be on the defensive and retreating.”
Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday that political risk was rising in South Africa, although any credit-rating changes hinged on the Zuma trial. The agency said the country showed a steady improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals.
Mbeki has kept a low profile, while Zuma is already acting like the man who will rule South Africa. He attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month. Mbeki did not attend, which would have been unthinkable before the change in the ANC leadership.
Some political analysts describe Mbeki as a cunning politician and say he should not yet be counted out, especially since Zuma could become increasingly embroiled in the corruption case.
However, Robert Schrire, head of the political-science studies department at the University of Cape Town, said Mbeki could pay a heavy price if he set his own agenda and challenged the ANC. ”It is not inconceivable that party elders urge Mbeki to resign,” he said. ”Mbeki knows that he has limited space.”
Political analyst Nic Borain says senior ANC leaders may be hedging their bets in case Zuma is sentenced to imprisonment.
Speculation has been growing that the ANC could force Mbeki to appoint Zuma’s deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe, as a deputy president of South Africa. That would give Zuma’s inner circle direct access to state power and open the way for Motlanthe to succeed Mbeki if Zuma were jailed. — Reuters