If Saturday’s election in Zimbabwe was really free and fair, Robert Mugabe would surely be packed off to his luxurious retirement home in Harare. It is a measure of how little faith Zimbabweans have in the electoral process that both Mugabe and the opposition are gearing up instead for a post-election showdown. When the opposition said it was preparing Kenya-style protest rallies, Mugabe responded by saying: ”Just dare try it.” This is before the first box has been stuffed with ballot papers from dead, fake or improperly registered voters.
That assumes that an 84-year-old man who has brought his country to penury will be able to cheat and bully his way again to an absolute majority. This is not a foregone conclusion. The effectiveness of rigging depends on the two factors, neither of which is easy to predict. First, the size of the vote against Mugabe could be so extensive that no amount of brute force can alter the result. Second, the rigging could help Zanu-PF’s defector Simba Makoni, especially if those votes are split in favour of Zanu-PF for the parliamentary elections and Makoni for the presidential one. Mugabe cannot be confident that his own repressive machinery will not be turned against him. It is impossible to gauge to what extent the same old techniques of intimidation will work again.
Morgan Tsvangirai, the presidential candidate for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, has vowed that his party will not repeat the mistake it made six years ago, when Mugabe stole the election and the MDC stayed rooted to the spot like a rabbit caught in headlights. The MDC has split since the 2002 election, with the more militant faction finding a new candidate in Makoni. For all his past weaknesses, Tsvangirai appears reinvigorated. There has been a surge of support for a man who was badly beaten up by Zanu-PF thugs last year and has endured everything that the regime has thrown at him.
There are three likely outcomes to the poll. First, Mugabe steals the election and everybody is too scared to protest. His misrule continues, as does the pressure building up inside his party, waiting for him to die, or just possibly retire. Second, he steals the election but this provokes a backlash so great that he is forced to hand over to some form of coalition government. Third, he is forced into a fatally damaging second-round run-off. To avoid this he needs 50% of the vote — at time when inflation is running at anything from 100% to 300 000%.
This is a tall order, even for the most practised autocrat. No other country will come to their rescue. Zimbabweans have to do the job themselves and force the tyrant out. – guardian.co.uk Â