Eskom’s sudden ability to stop load-shedding despite claiming for months that it did not have enough capacity to meet national demand has confused public and industry insiders.
Experts say that the saving through power outages outweighed the economic costs, and this had led Eskom to stop its power cuts although the desired 10% reduction in demand had not been met.
Brian Stathan, chaiperson of the South African National Energy Association, says: ‘the amount of savings achieved, measured against the massive disruption to the economy has not been worth itâ€.
He says Eskom’s ability to stop power outages stemmed from better technical management by the parastatal, and particularly the completion of maintenance work on Eskom plant equipment.
The electricity generator had also increased its stocks of coal — shortage of this raw material contributed to a temporary shutdown of some of the country’s mines.
Eskom spokesperson Andrew Etzinger said load-shedding had been a desperate measure that had been extremely disruptive. ‘But we found most large metros and municipalities have achieved a saving of between five and eight percent. Eskom has also increased its coal stockpiles to an average of 15,2 days worth of stock, with no station being below the 11 days,†he said.
Increased savings, improved coal stockpiles as well as completed maintenance of plant, have all contributed to Eskom’s decision.
Etzinger warned that the country was by no means back to operating ‘business as usual†and that large industries are still expected to cut usage by 10%.
Eskom is allowing big companies to breach this level in exceptional circumstances, for example to prevent job losses.
But many large companies are baffled by the halt to load-shedding. The energy instensive user group (EIUG), a body made up of South Africa’s largest energy consumers is pressing for a meeting with Eskom chief executive officer Jacob Maroga. ‘The EIUG is confused and uncertain about the decision and we are calling for a meeting with Maroga in the next 30 days,†it told the Mail & Guardian.
Load-shedding and the forced reduction in power consumption has left many of South Africa’s large industries struggling to meet production requirements.
Dr Azar Jammine, director at Econometrix, said continued restrictions on mining in particular are crippling. He says 10% reduction in electricity usage results in a real world production loss of 25% for a mining company because most of its electricity is used simply in keeping operations open, he says.
Any cuts have to come from the 40% of power spent on production operations, which leads to drop in production by a quarter.
Cornelius van der Waal, of growth consultants Frost and Sullivan, says the chief reason why Eskom halted load-shedding was that the electrical distribution infrastructure could not take the strain.
In April two substations, one in Johannesburg and one in the Nelson Mandela metro exploded.
‘Municipal infrastructure has been very poorly maintained,†says Van der Waal.
‘It was just not built to withstand these kinds of load changes.â€
Eskom’s Etzinger says that on-going load-shedding could shorten the life expectancy of equipment, but that the two substation explosions needed to be investigated before any conclusions could be drawn.
