/ 4 July 2008

Iran sends mixed signals over nuclear programme

Iran is keeping the world guessing about its response to the latest offer to suspend its nuclear programme in return for international incentives, as its leaders send out mixed signals in the face of warnings from Israel and the United States.

Nearly three weeks after Tehran was offered a new package of incentives, no formal answer has been forthcoming, though Iran Foreign Minister, Manuchehr Mottaki, promised on Wednesday that it would be delivered ”very soon” and in a ”new atmosphere”.

Excitement mounted earlier this week when Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, declared that ”everything” was up for negotiation with the international community. That apparently contradicted the government’s flat refusal to suspend uranium enrichment — the demand on which a deal ultimately hinges.

Velayati, a former foreign minister, said it was ”expedient” for Iran to resume talks on the offer made by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, in a move fronted by Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief, in mid-June. ”If those who act against our interests want us not to accept [the proposal], then our expedience is in accepting it,” he told the Jomhouri Eslami newspaper.

On Thursday, Velayati seemed to be rowing back somewhat, telling Iranian state television that his comments did not mean that Tehran would accept the EU offer, which includes a provision for light-water civilian nuclear reactors. ”I talked about accepting negotiations and not accepting the proposed package,” he insisted.

The comments from Iran coincide with a flurry of activity by the United States and Israel on the nuclear issue. The chairperson of the US joint chiefs of staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, warned on Wednesday that an Israeli air strike on Iran would make the Middle East more unstable and further add to the stress on American forces in the region.

Israel has been waging an intense public relations campaign to underline its determination to bomb Iran if UN sanctions fail — though its formal position is that it supports diplomatic efforts. Last month the Israeli air force carried out a large-scale, long-range aerial exercise over the Mediterranean and a minister warned that an attack could become ”unavoidable”.

Iran denies seeking to develop nuclear weapons. But the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, has demanded ”full disclosure” from Tehran over allegations that it covertly studied how to design a nuclear weapon.

EU officials say they are watching the intensifying debate in Tehran with interest, but still await a formal response from the government.

”At the end of the day the [Iranian] leadership has to decide,” said one British diplomat. ”And Velayati is not the one who’s calling the shots.”

Ali Ansari, professor of Iranian studies at St Andrews University, said publication of Solana’s offer in the Iranian media — the first time this had happened — had combined with a mounting economic crisis to fuel a debate that was now putting pressure on the leadership.

”Until now they’ve been able to take refuge in righteous indignation [about the use of sanctions], but now people can see the offer includes civilian nuclear energy, people may be asking ‘what’s the problem’?” he said.

”It shows divisions in the hierarchy and the West needs to approach this intelligently,” Ansari added. ”The key is not to dismiss these sort of nuanced responses out of hand. This is clearly a feeler. What the Iranians are doing is to respond to the Israeli PR offensive by suggesting they are open to talks. The question is are they playing for time or are they serious.”

Debate over Iran is being affected by concern that military action could push oil prices even higher. Earlier this week Iran threatened to close off the Strait of Hormuz, choking oil supplies, if it came under attack. The commander of the US 5th Fleet, based in Bahrain, said Washington would not permit that to happen. —