A split from the ANC? Forget it. The time is not right for a split and any new initiative will fail. Here are seven reasons why it will fail:
1. For a breakaway from the ANC to succeed it will need to have solid rank and file support and significant wider mass support, neither of which have been evident so far. It is linked to the ministers who resigned in the wake of president Thabo Mbeki’s ousting, but there is no discernible mass base behind the party.
The reported meeting of a few hundred Mbeki supporters in Cape Town last week is regionally of little significance for the broader requirements to launch a successful mass breakaway from the ANC.
Thus far it appears that the idea is largely circulating among a few leaders with pockets of support in some provinces.
2. It will be very difficult for this idea to take root and gather mass support just seven months before an election and in the middle of a social crisis, which is far greater than the political crisis. It is an inopportune time to launch a breakaway party, especially if it intends participating in the elections.
There will be little time left before the elections to launch both a new party — a demanding and multifaceted task requiring massive resources and preparation — and immediately thereafter a strong and credible election campaign, especially if it starts off without significant mass support.
3. The ANC, under President Kgalema Motlanthe and his deputy Baleka Mbete, have the backing of ANC allies, the powerful Congress of South African Trade Unions, the South African Communist Party and the ANC Youth League. They enjoy the power of incumbency.
4. A splinter party appears to lack any significant economic or social policy differences with the new ANC leadership. Had there been such differences it would have politically and organisationally invested a breakaway with a more principled and powerful basis to potentially attract substantial ANC rank and file and wider mass support.
5. The resolution of Mbeki’s appeal against some aspects of the Judge Chris Nicholson judgement belongs in the sphere of constitutional litigation.
6. A mass exodus from the ANC is unlikely because of existing levels of loyalty and support. The masses are attracted to strength, not an anxious, opportunistic and unclear start-up party.
7. It is false and hypocritical for former ANC chairperson Mosiuoa Lekota to suddenly realise the virtues of democracy and complain of the lack thereof under the new ANC leadership. With Lekota, Mbeki violated several provisions of the very Freedom Charter they now hold up as the gold standard of good comradely behaviour.
New party, my foot! Instead these “democrats” belong to the dustbin of history, a fate they are ironically resisting in the name of “democracy”. But then the ironies of history are many.