This week marked 500 days to the start of the 2010 Soccer World Cup and it would be stating the obvious to say that the closer we get, the further behind rugby will fall in the popularity stakes.
The executives of Sanzar (South Africa, New Zealand, Australia Rugby) recognised that fact and have been trying for some time now to take their collective thinking out of the box.
The International Rugby Board (IRB) has forced Sanzar’s hand in some respects. The need to reward Argentina, the team that finished third in the 2007 World Cup, means that the Pumas will in all likelihood join an expanded Tri-Nations in 2010.
But the main issue worrying Sanzar is what to do with the Super 14.
The competition began as the Super 6 and then expanded to the Super 10 when South Africa emerged from isolation in 1993. It grew two more teams at the beginning of the professional era in 1996 and a further two a decade later. Now the talk is of a Super 18 or even a Super 20 with radical changes to the structure of the competition.
Sanzar understands the urgency of finding a workable format because the global game is at a crossroads.
The IRB has been talking about a global season for years, but the amount of vested interest in both northern and southern hemispheres make it extremely unlikely. Therefore, the real battle is to control the tier immediately below international level.
The Heineken Cup is now a real threat to the Super 14. You need only to look at the number of southern hemisphere players involved in it to understand that.
The fact that the Crusaders, defending champions for the sixth time in their history, have allowed Dan Carter to go to Perpignan for a sabbatical, is proof positive.
Crowds are growing exponentially in France, Ireland and England and more bums on seats means greater spending power for the clubs and bigger commissions for the agents. The time is coming when Super 14 teams are going to trumpet major northern hemisphere signings, something that would have seemed unthinkable five years ago.
The Sharks paved the way to an extent last year, when they signed mercurial French flyhalf Fred Michalak for the Super 14. At the time Michalak was not part of the French squad and that is the case again this year, ahead of the Six Nations Championship. But he will unquestionably play at the highest level again and regarded a season in the Super 14 as an omission from his rugby CV.
A bad injury early in the tournament last year was a major setback for Michalak, but he returned in time to earn a Currie Cup winner’s medal with the Sharks.
Now though, it is a case of been there, done that, and that should worry the Sanzar executive.
Those who study the wave harmonic theory of historical perception will point out that one wave recedes as another breaks. Twenty years ago English Premiership soccer was the poor relation to Italy’s Serie A and 30 years ago it was Germany’s Bundesliga that attracted the big names.
When Diego Maradona was the best player in the world he chose to play in Italy. If Maradona were in his prime today, he would be playing in England. The credit crunch is biting and some place in the world, possibly Spain or Portugal, will soon take over the baton from the Premiership. The point being that Carter, rated by most as the Maradona of the rugby world, chooses to spend a year in the prime of his rugby career in France.
There are two reasons. Firstly, the New Zealand Rugby Football Union (NZRFU) has accepted the inevitable and no longer regards All Blacks who play overseas as pariahs. Second, and a good deal more pertinently, Carter is looking for new worlds to conquer. The Crusaders have been so successful that he no longer regards winning the Super 14 as important.
That’s why the NZRFU was so angry when its South African counterpart, Saru, scuppered plans to change the sharp end of the season in 2009. Instead of semifinals, it was going to be the top six teams who would progress to a new play-off system. Saru demanded a guaranteed home game for one of its teams regardless of log position and upon that point the talks disintegrated.
So this year’s Super 14 will look just like last year’s and the likelihood is that the same teams will be vying for the top four positions when April rolls around. The Crusaders without Carter will not be quite such hot favourites and the team that most will fear are the Sharks, recipients of one of the kindest draws in the competition’s history.
The question remains, if the Sharks happen to win, will it be the beginning of a glorious new era for southern hemisphere rugby or will it be a last hurrah before the baton is clutched by the north?