The next three weeks will be critical for the Springbok class of 2009 as they take on their archrivals on home turf.
That may seem harsh considering they have already won a series against the British and Irish Lions, but they still have six Tri-Nations Tests left to play, split evenly between the hemispheres.
The problem is that all of the Tests that follow the Cape Town clash against Australia on August 8 — three in the Tri-Nations and three on tour later in the year — are away from home and, traditionally, South African teams tour rather less well than Gulliver.
They normally need a large carrot dangled in front of them and this year’s motivating factor is a good Tri-Nations draw. Will it be enough?
This week’s encounter with New Zealand in Bloemfontein will help elucidate matters. The All Blacks arrived in Pretoria on Sunday after coming from behind to beat Australia in the tournament’s opening match in Auckland on Saturday.
They carry injuries and coach Graham Henry was unhappy about leaving two players behind in New Zealand because of cost constraints. They spent the first part of the week recovering from jet leg and didn’t get down to serious training until Wednesday.
By contrast, the Boks watched the Eden Park encounter in their Bloemfontein hotel and will be rested and relatively confident against an All Black side that has many merits, but is some way short of a few of the titanic teams to visit these shores in recent years. It should all add up to a home win with a certain amount of comfort, but history suggests otherwise.
South Africa have never beaten New Zealand in Bloemfontein. The two sides drew 11-11 in 1960 and New Zealand won 15-9 in 1976, the tourists’ only victory in four starts that season. Perhaps more pertinently, since the Tri Nations began in 1996 the All Blacks have never been caught cold in South Africa.
Indeed, the Boks have beaten the old enemy only five times on home soil in 13 years. Of those wins, the 40-26 win in Johannesburg in 2004 might seem one-sided until you remember that the All Blacks led with 13 minutes to go. That was Jake White’s first season in charge and the last time the Springboks lifted the Tri-Nations trophy.
They were world champions going into last year’s tournament and a first-ever win in Dunedin seemed to suggest a glorious campaign. But the Springboks lost two out of three of their home fixtures and claimed another wooden spoon. A successful end-of-year tour papered over the cracks, but there is no doubt that the Boks underachieved in 2008.
It would be far easier to assess their chances this season had the last Test against the Lions been won instead of, somewhat ignominiously, lost. It would be easy to suggest that the Boks lost because they made 10 changes to the side that clinched the series in Pretoria and that dead rubbers are notoriously difficult things to motivate players for.
But that would be to ignore the lessons of the first two Tests. It is quite conceivable that the coaching team rang the changes for the last game because they were afraid of being rumbled. Had the Lions taken their chances in Durban, and had Morne Steyn’s final kick been wide at Loftus, we might be a good deal less sanguine about the Boks right now.
Which is not to suggest that the Boks were lucky against the Lions, merely to emphasise the point that the first team cannot afford to start as slowly against the All Blacks in the next fortnight as they did against the Lions. This may not be a vintage New Zealand side, but it’s better than the Lions.
Schalk Burger is in the middle of an eight-week ban and so this year’s edition of the Incredible Schalk against Richie McCaw is on hold. Instead, Heinrich Brussow will play his first Test at his home ground. Brussow’s performances against the Lions suggested that a bright new star has entered the firmament, but McCaw has a habit of bringing stars down to earth.
The battle for the loose ball will be crucial on a firm field and the New Zealand back row looks slightly better equipped than its South African counterpart. Jerome Kaino complimented McCaw perfectly against the Wallabies last week, while Rodney So’oialo took a break after the Super 14 and will be fresh for this week’s encounter.
If South Africa have an advantage it is in the back line, with a number of outstanding performers. This will be a crucial game for Frans Steyn at fullback. Steyn rose to the challenge against the Lions, but is still callow in a positional and decision-making sense. The All Blacks will ruthlessly exploit frailty at the back, just as they did in Pretoria in 1999.
On that day a certain Percival Colin Montgomery endured his worst day in the green and gold. Monty was tormented by the precise kicking of Andrew Mehrtens and was constantly caught out of position. The All Blacks won 34-18 and few spectators that day would have predicted that Monty would become the first man to win 100 Springbok caps.
Monty is now part of the coaching staff and it is hoped that he can pass on some of his hard-earned experience to Steyn, who needs to convince us that fullback is indeed his best position.
If he has a good day and the Bok pack presents Fourie du Preez with quality ball it should be a good day for the home side.