The latest Ipsos Markinor survey puts national support for the Congress of the People at 2,2% — a drop of more than 5% since the April elections.
A year after Cope was founded, with much fanfare, it exists in Parliament and provincial legislatures but is weak on the ground.
Only a few hundred supporters turned up at its first-anniversary rally this week at a stadium in Kimberley.
Cope’s deputy president, Mbhazima Shilowa, argued that the attendance was not significant, as the rally was meant for the people of Kimberley — hence the choice of a small venue.
“The turnout was no different from at the rally I addressed a Sunday before election day,” said Shilowa.
A Cope national committee member put the party’s membership at between 150 000 and 200 000. The initial claim, in late 2008, was of 500 000 members.
The next significant test will be the 2011 local elections. Recapturing the imagination of eligible voters is the only way Cope can resuscitate itself.
There is still potential for it to bounce back to 8%, according to Markinor. Its credibility would also be bolstered by a democratically elected leadership. But the party’s national congress, at which such elections would take place, is only planned for the end of next year.
Cope’s failure to sustain the initial excitement around its launch can be traced to leadership battles and a lack of clear policies and constitution.
But the biggest mistake was the fact that it failed to shape a clear identity for itself from the outset.
The ANC was vulnerable at the time Cope was founded. It was fielding a presidential candidate who faced corruption charges and had recently “recalled” Thabo Mbeki as president.
Tinyiko Maluleke, director of research at Unisa, believes that the withdrawal of the charges against Jacob Zuma on April6 was the beginning of the end for Cope.
“What Mokotedi Mpshe [former acting head of the National Prosecuting Authority] did was pull the rug out from under their feet; they were suddenly confused,” said Maluleke.
One of Cope’s key campaign messages was the fight against corruption and the defence of the Constitution and the rule of law, based on Zuma’s legal woes and fears that he would receive special treatment.
The choice of relatively unknown leaders, including former second deputy president Lynda Odendaal and parliamentary leader Mvume Dandala, was also a questionable tactic.
In the April poll Cope performed relatively well for a four-month-old party, but expected to do much better. Its 7% share of the vote dampened morale and the party has failed to consolidate this support.
Maluleke said a good percentage of those who voted for Cope in April might have done so as a “protest vote” to punish the ANC for its perceived arrogance, while not wishing to sign up as Cope members.
Shilowa said: “People compare the time of activity when there are elections to the time when there are no elections. Show me a single party that has the same programmes as it does during election campaigns.”