African cities are growing at a pace never experienced in world history.
In just two decades more than 50% of Africans will live in cities on the continent. In 2015, while London’s population will increase by six people an hour and Berlin’s not at all, Lagos will grow by 58 people every hour, Kinshasa by 39 and Nairobi by 15.
Though the rate of urbanisation in South African cities is less dramatic than in cities north of the Limpopo (Johannesburg is estimated to grow by four people every hour), a significant eight out of every 10 South Africans will live in cities by 2050.
It is clear that the epicentre of what has been called the “century of the city” is shifting from the global north to the global south.
Yet Africa’s growth is unlike urbanisation in other parts of the world. The history of urbanisation in developed countries shows that there is a strong correlation between urbanisation, economic development and improved quality of life.
But for contemporary South African cities, this correlation does not seem to hold — at least not in the short to medium term. This “over-urbanisation”, as some urbanists have called it, is characterised, not by improved lifestyles but by the reproduction of poverty.
Inequality persists in cities
The most visible evidence of this is that as our cities grow, so too do slums. Here, the daily struggle to feed, clothe and educate families is compounded by the lack of basic services. In many ways the “apartheid city” remains with us as income and spatial inequality persist in our cities.
Research conducted by land activist group Urban LandMark in the past four years suggests that despite laudable government efforts to create more equitable cities access to land and housing remains deeply unequal.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the choices that people face when moving to urban areas. As people move to cities, the demand for serviced land and housing increases. However, the market is often unable to respond to this demand, leaving ordinary urban dwellers few choices.
Qualifying South Africans can always wait for a government RDP house, but it is a long and costly process because of the transaction costs incurred while waiting, even though the house is essentially free.
There is the option of buying a small house by taking a bank mortgage. Unfortunately, cheap houses are in short supply, even for people who earn enough to pay off a loan.
Another alternative is to find shelter in an informal settlement or in someone else’s back yard.
Immediate solution
However problematic, urban slums provide some form of shelter to urban dwellers when the formal sector and government responds sluggishly, or not at all.
Research in nine settlements showed that it took 69 days from when householders heard about a house or plot in a shack settlement to the time they were able to move in. By contrast, householders waiting for an RDP house, may spend anything from three to five years on the waiting list — less if they can work out how to jump the queue.
But what chances do those lucky enough to get an RDP house have for upward mobility in the city?
For most middle-class households, home ownership is an asset that can be sold for a profit and traded for a more valuable house.
Households that access an RDP house or an older township house find it hard to sell the house for its real cost (even to recoup what was spent building and improving the house), let alone recover the appreciation on the value of the property.
Stark differences
There are various reasons for this, including the lack of housing finance, the prohibitive cost of conveyancing, the lack of a title deed, or the mindset that it is unfair to profit from a free house delivered by the state.
Whatever one’s ideological position about markets, the difference in the choices available to middle and upper-class urban residents for upward mobility and those available to the poor are stark.
And this is replicated in the informal economy. Studies show that those who trade on pavements, street corners and taxi ranks face the danger of being arrested for illegal trading.
However problematic, our cities remain places of opportunity. This is true not only for ordinary people but also for urban policymakers.
The nature of growth in African cities is not only remarkable in scale, but in its very nature.
Informal economy
Despite the problems facing the majority of urban dwellers, they find ways to gain access to the city, largely through the informal economy.
As South Africa enters its 16th year of democracy there is a lot to learn about the fast-changing nature of our society, as ordinary people take on huge challenges in their quest for a better life. It is an opportunity to rethink urban economies and the role of government and other stakeholders, while remaining true to the reality of the majority of people making their way into cities.
What we need are cities that provide ordinary people with choices that enable them to participate fully in urban life. This means levelling the playing field in the market so that ordinary people can access urban opportunities as readily as the powerful.
It may also mean rethinking how we view slums and the informal economy, which provides avenues of access to the city where the state and formal market have failed.
Caroline Kihato is the regional theme coordinator and Mark Napier the programme director of Urban LandMark. Urban LandMark’s conference: “Rethinking Emerging Land Markets in Rapidly Growing Southern African Cities” takes place on November 1 and 2. For more information, go to www.urbanlandmark.org.