Egypt’s president gave the first indication on Saturday he was preparing an eventual handover of power by naming a vice-president for the first time in 30 years after protests that have rocked the foundations of the state.
Hosni Mubarak’s decision to pick Omar Suleiman, his intelligence chief and confidant, as his number two the first time the 82-year-old leader has hinted at a succession plan and may suggest he will not run in an election scheduled for September.
Whether he can hold on to power until then, however, remained in question. Many believe the army holds the key.
Until five days of unprecedented scenes of popular defiance and chaos across the country, officials had suggested Mubarak would run again. If not him, many Egyptians believed, his son, Gamal (47) could be lined up to run. This now seems impossible.
Suleiman (74) has long been central in key policy areas, including the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, an issue vital to Egypt’s relationship with key aid donor the United States.
Some protesters, whose actions forced Mubarak to send the army on to the streets of the biggest Arab nation, were not happy with a decision that looks set to ensure power stays in the hands of military and security institutions.
“He is just like Mubarak, there is no change,” a protester told Reuters outside the Interior Ministry, where thousands were protesting, moments after the appointment.
The appointment as prime minister of Ahmad Shafiq — who is, like Mubarak himself, a former commander of the air force — also indicated a preference for responding to public demands for change with limited changes in personnel. Mubarak’s decision on Friday to sack the government failed to impress protesters.
The speaker of parliament was later quoted as saying that there were no plans to meet demands for early elections.
For some, however, naming Suleiman at the formal right-hand of Mubarak was a relief after millions had looked on in panic as security in Egypt disintegrated with protesters ripping up pictures of Mubarak and torching government buildings.
“I am happy. I feel this is a change and the people will be happy. They wanted something, they want to feel they could make a difference,” said Effat Abdul-Hamid, a private security guard.
Analysts said it was the first indication that Mubarak had realised the magnitude of the upheaval that gripped his country.
“This is a step in the right direction, but I am afraid it is a late step,” said Hassan Nafaa, politics professor at Cairo University, adding that much may depend on how Suleiman, as a senior representative of the military, could capitalise on public regard for the army to smooth the departure of Mubarak.
“The street will not be convinced by Omar Suleiman at this moment unless Omar Suleiman addresses the people and says there will be a new system and that Mubarak has handed power over to him and that the military is in control of the situation and has a programme of a democratic transition,” Nafaa said.
Army holds back
On the streets of Cairo, soldiers repelled protesters who attacked a central government building. But elsewhere in the city, troops took no action as people stayed on the streets despite warnings to stay indoors after 4pm (2pm GMT).
A group of 50 people approached a military cordon carrying a sign reading “Army and People Together”. Soldiers pulled back a barrier and let the group through: “There is a curfew,” one lieutenant said. “But the army isn’t going to shoot anyone.”
The protesters, many of them young urban poor or students, are enraged over endemic poverty, corruption and unemployment as well as the lack of democracy in the most populous Arab nation.
The unrest, which follows the overthrow of Tunisian strongman Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali two weeks ago in a popular uprising, has sent shock waves through the Middle East, where other autocratic rulers may face similar challenges.
On the Corniche promenade alongside the River Nile in Cairo, people stayed out after the curfew deadline, standing by tanks and chatting with soldiers who took no action to disperse them.
Earlier on Saturday, several thousand people flocked to central Cairo’s Tahrir Square, waving Egyptian flags and pumping their arms in the air in unison. “The people demand the president be put on trial,” they chanted.
The scene contrasted with Friday, when police fired teargas and rubber bullets and protesters hurled stones in running battles. Government buildings, including the ruling party headquarters, were set alight by demonstrators.
While the police are generally feared as an instrument of repression, the army is seen as a national institution.
Rosemary Hollis, at London’s City University, said the army had to decide whether it stood with Mubarak or the people: “It’s one of those moments where as with the fall of communism in Eastern Europe they can come down to individual lieutenants and soldiers to decide whether they fire on the crowd or not.”
Dozens killed
In Alexandria, police used teargas and live ammunition against demonstrators earlier on Saturday. Protests continued in the port city after curfew, witnesses said.
According to a Reuters tally, at least 74 people have been killed during the week. Medical sources said at least 1Â 030 people were injured in Cairo.
Clashes have also occurred in Suez, near the eastern terminal of the canal linking Europe and Asia.
Mubarak, has held power since the 1981 assassination of Sadat by Islamist soldiers. He promised to address Egyptians’ grievances in a televised speech on Friday.
So far, the protest movement seems to have no clear leader or organisation. Prominent activist Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize Laureate for his work with the UN nuclear agency, returned to Egypt from Europe to join the protests. But many Egyptians feel he has not spent enough time in the country. The Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist opposition group, has also stayed in the background, although several of its senior officials have been rounded up.
Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics, said the protests had already changed the game in the Middle East.
“This is the Arab world’s Berlin moment. The authoritarian wall has fallen, and that’s regardless of whether Mubarak survives or not. It goes beyond Mubarak,” he said.
“The barrier of fear has been removed. It is really the beginning of the end of the status quo in the region.
US dilemma
It also poses a dilemma for the United States. Mubarak (82) has been a close ally of Washington and beneficiary of US aid for decades, justifying his autocratic rule in part by citing a danger of Islamist militancy.
Egypt plays a key role in Middle East peacemaking and was the first Arab nation to sign a peace treaty with Israel.
US President Barack Obama said he had spoken to Mubarak shortly after his speech on Friday and urged him to make good on his promises of reform. US officials made clear that $1,5-billion in aid was at stake.
Britain, Germany and other countries advised their nationals against travel to the main cities hit, a development that would harm Egypt’s tourist industry, a mainstay of the economy.
Banks will be shut on Sunday as “a precaution”, Central Bank Governor Hisham Ramez told Reuters.
The stock market, whose benchmark index tumbled 16% in two days, will also be closed on Sunday. The Egyptian pound fell to six-year lows.
Timeline
- October 6 1981: Vice-President Hosni Mubarak is thrust into office when Islamists gun down President Anwar Sadat at a military parade. He is approved as new president in a referendum in November and re-elected in October 1987 and October 1993.
- June 26 1995: Gunmen attack Mubarak’s bulletproof limousine as he arrives at an Organisation of African Unity summit in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa, but is unhurt and returns home immediately. Mubarak blames a Sudanese man.
- November 17 1997: Egypt’s biggest Islamic militant group, al-Gama’a al-Islamiya (Islamic Group) kill 58 tourists and four Egyptians at an ancient temple near the southern town of Luxor. Six gunmen and three police also die.
- The state crushed groups including al-Gama’a al-Islamiya and Islamic Jihad, which targeted tourists, Christians, ministers in a 1990s campaign for a purist Islamic state, and has kept a tight lid on such groups since.
- October 5 1999: Mubarak is sworn in as president for a fourth term and names Atef Obeid as new prime minister after the government led by Kamal Ganzouri resigns.
- December 22 1999: Egypt agrees to sell its natural gas through what Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak’s office dubs a “Pipeline of Peace”. After years of negotiations running alongside the strains of Middle East peacemaking, Barak’s office says gas will be piped from El-Arish in Egypt to Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and later to Turkey, Syria and Lebanon.
- March 2005: Street protests by the Kefaya (Enough) Movement draw hundreds across Egypt to oppose a fifth term for Mubarak or any attempt to install his son Gamal in his place.
- May 11 2005: Parliament votes to change the Constitution to allow contested presidential elections, dismissing opposition complaints that strict rules would still prevent genuine competition. A referendum later in May overwhelmingly confirms the constitutional change.
- September 27 2005: Mubarak is sworn in for a fifth consecutive term after winning the country’s first contested presidential elections. Rival Ayman Nour is the only member of Parliament to remain seated during the ceremony, apparently to show his refusal to accept the official vote count.
- December 8 2005: The Muslim Brotherhood increase their seats in Parliament after an election marred by violence, but Mubarak’s party retains a big majority. Eight people were killed on the last day of voting on December 7.
- November 19 2006: Mubarak says he will retain his responsibilities for the rest of his life.
- June 4 2009: US President Barack Obama in a speech in Cairo calls for a “new beginning” in ties between Washington and the Islamic world.
- March 26 2010: Former UN nuclear chief Mohamed ElBaradei makes a first public appearance after his return to Egypt in February. ElBaradei has said he would consider a presidential bid if demands are met, including constitutional changes to limit power.
- March 27 2010: Mubarak returns to Egypt to reassume presidential powers after three weeks recovering from gallbladder surgery in Germany.
- January 25 2011: At least four people are killed at “Day of Wrath” anti-government protests across Egypt as demonstrators voice their anger, complaining of poverty and repression.
- January 27: Security forces shoot dead a Bedouin protester in the north of Egypt’s Sinai region, bringing the death toll to five on the third day of protests.
- ElBaradei returns to Egypt from Austria. Speaking earlier in Vienna, ElBaradei says it is time for Mubarak to step aside.
- January 28: Security forces fire rubber bullets and tear gas as protesters hurl stones at them and shout “Down, Down, Hosni Mubarak!” witnesses say.
- Police blanket Cairo and block social networking communications in an effort to stifle the protests. Internet via Egyptian servers is blocked across the country, closing a key tool for activists.
- Demonstrations are also staged in other major cities including Alexandria, Mansoura, Suez and Aswan and other major urban centres.
- January 29: Mubarak names Omar Suleiman as vice-president. – Reuters