Treasury might not accept all other items recommended as this could take a chunk some R4-billion out of possible revenue raised, calling for a tough balancing act. (Oupa Nkosi/M&G)
North America|
Last month's existing home sales are the first data on America's economic calendar this week. Consensus is that sales rose to an annualised pace of 5.03-million units in March from 4.98-million in February. Low supply has been keeping the pace of sales low, but rising prices appear to be bringing more sellers to market.
More housing information will follow on Tuesday. Economists expect new home sales data to show that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annualised pace of 419 000 units in March from 411 000 in February. As with existing homes, supply constraints have been limiting sales.
Next up, on Wednesday, durable goods orders data from the US commerce department are expected to show a 2.8% month-on-month decline in March, down from a 5.6% rise in February. February's strong showing was largely the result of a surge in civilian aircraft orders, which rose 21.8%. Excluding transportation, orders fell 0.7% in February. They likely rose 0.5% in March.
Finally, on Friday, all eyes will turn to first quarter economic growth figures. Markets expect gross domestic product (GDP) data to show that the world's largest economy grew by 3.1% from the previous quarter. Markets would likely find any number below 3% disappointing.
Beyond the economic calendar, economists and investors will continue to watch corporate earnings reports over the coming days. This week's biggest name reporter is Apple on Tuesday. Other bellwether companies reporting include Amazon, Boeing, Caterpillar, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Lockheed Martin and Proctor & Gamble.
Europe
Key data scheduled for release in the week ahead may raise expectations for a rate cut from the European Central Bank. Europe's southern economies have long been mired in recession, but Germany and the continent's north are now showing signs of further weakness as well.
On Tuesday, flash manufacturing purchasing index (PMI) readings for Germany and France – Europe's two largest economies – and for the eurozone as a whole will take centre stage. Markets expect all three indices to indicate continuing contraction.
Germany's PMI is likely to remain just below the 50-mark separating contraction from expansion at a reading of 49. France's PMI is expected to remain at 44. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI is forecast to fall to 46.5 from last month's 46.8 and the region's composite PMI is expected to fall from 46.5 to 45.8.
On Wednesday, attention will shift to Germany's Ifo business climate index. Economists predict a slight decline, from 106.7 to 106.2, from the Munich-based Institute for Economic Research.
Beyond economic data, Italy's uncertain political situation will continue to remain a source of worry this week. Italy's Parliament re-elected President Giorgio Napolitano to a second term on Saturday in its sixth round of voting.
The 87-year old head of state is expected to begin another round of talks with party leaders in a bid to convince them to form a broad coalition government. Italy has been without a government since inconclusive elections in February left no group with enough seats to form a government.
Asia
China's unofficial PMI numbers will be released on Tuesday. Flash figures represent results based on around 90% of respondents and are issued one-week prior to final results. China's massive manufacturing sector is a key source for growth in the world's second largest economy, so this forward-looking index is always closely watched.
Markets expect the index to indicate continuing expansion, but at a slightly slower pace. Consensus is for a drop to 51.4 from last month's 51.6.
On Wednesday, Australia will release first quarter consumer inflation figures. Markets expect the data to show that the country's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.7%, quarter on quarter, following a 0.2% quarterly rise during the final three months of 2012.
Later in the week, attention will shift to Japan, Asia's number two economy and the world's third largest. On Friday, the country's central bank will hold a monetary policy meeting and release its outlook report.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced an unprecedented $1.4-trillion stimulus programme at its March meeting in a bid to conclusively end the country's long-running battle with deflation and spur economic growth. Although further easing is not expected this week, the BOJ is widely expected to continue to sound an aggressive note.
The country's ministry of internal affairs and communications will also release March's CPI on Friday. National core CPI is expected to show a 0.4% fall from a year earlier, its sixth consecutive monthly decline and the largest drop since March 2011's 0.7% fall.
Latin America|
Mexico will release February's retail and wholesale sales figures. The pace of retail sales growth probably slowed to 1.2% in February from 1.8% in January.
Brazil will release last month's current account figures on Wednesday. Analysts at 4CAST expect the country's current account deficit to have widened to $7.2-billion in March from $6.6-billion in February. Brazil's central bank upwardly revised its forecast for the 2013 deficit to $67-billion, from $65-billion previously, late last month.
On Thursday, data from Brazil's national statistics office is expected to show that the country's unemployment rate rose for a third consecutive month, to 5.9% in March from 5.6% in February. Despite sluggish growth, Brazil's unemployment rate remains at historically low levels. The country's tight labour markets have caused wages to trend higher, a source of inflationary concern for the central bank.
Also on Thursday, Mexico will release February's indicator of global economic activity. This monthly GDP proxy likely slowed to 1% growth from a year earlier, down from 3.2% in January.
On Friday, Mexico's central bank will announce its latest rates decision and the country's statistics office will release March's preliminary trade balance. Markets expect policymakers at the Banco de México to leave the bank's 4% overnight rate on hold.
Finally, markets will be on the lookout for an economic stimulus and banking reform package from President Enrique Peña Nieto over the coming days. Since taking office in December, Peña Nieto has passed a major education reform and is expected to pass sweeping telecommunications reforms this month.
Africa
The Bank of Namibia's monetary policy committee will announce its latest rates decision on Wednesday. Officials left the repo rate on hold at 5.5% at their last meeting and are widely expected to do so again this week.
Despite a decline in headline inflation, which fell to a six-month low in February, recent exchange rate weakness means that price pressures in Namibia remain. Coupled with a relatively upbeat outlook for the country's economy, officials are likely to refrain from easing monetary policy in the near term.
Officials at the Bank of Ghana are also expected to announce a rates decision this week. The Bank of Zambia may announce its rates decision this week or next.
On the data front, the continent's largest economy has a quiet week ahead. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) will release February's tourism accommodation, transport, and food and beverages sales data along with March's liquidations figures on Monday. On Thursday, the South African Reserve Bank will release its semi-annual financial stability review and Stats SA will report last month's producer inflation figures.
Elsewhere on the continent, between now and the end of the month, Ghana will report March's gross reserve figures, Nigeria will issue March's private sector credit figures and Zambia will report April's consumer inflation figures.
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