The Democratic Alliance (DA) has hit back at Ipsos’s latest poll which indicates it could potentially lose 9% of its support in the 2019 general election — taking just 13% of the vote.
According to Ipsos’s research, published in its “Pulse of the People” report, the ANC is comfortably on track to win the 2019 election with an estimated 60% of the national vote. But the DA, which won 22% of the vote in 2014 — is predicted to lag far behind — according to Ipsos.
The party, however, has rubbished the report, saying it has not seen the evidence to support Ipsos’s claims.
“The only poll we care about is the one in 2019,” said DA national spokesperson Solly Malatsi.
Ipsos collected data between April and June 2018, using research garnered by interviewing 3 738 South Africans, who were 15 years and older. Ipsos derived its forecast on the outcome of the national election based on how respondents who are 18 years and older — those of voting age — said they would vote come 2019. People all over South Africa were surveyed, Ipsos says, but it is unclear in the report how many people from each province were interviewed.
In its report, Ipsos specifically referred to the DA’s in-fighting in the Western Cape as a potential reason behind its forecasted loss of support in the province.
“The DA and the EFF do not escape the general political uncertainty in the country and the DA has, especially in the Western Cape their own internal differences causing many questions about the future of the party,” the report reads.
It has also been criticised over its initial handling of the drought crisis.
This week, tensions between the party and Cape Town mayor Patricia De Lille once again flared up as another motion of no confidence has been brought against De Lille by a member of the caucus.
Malatsi dismissed estimates that the DA has lost support in the Western Cape, saying that provincial leaders had been canvassing communities and had been welcomed.
Ipsos has forecasted that the DA will still take the majority vote in the Western Cape, winning 28% of the vote. The ANC, however, is not far behind with 26% of the vote.
Ipsos, admits however, that 17% of those who participated in the survey refused to say who would get their vote in the province.
“According to these results, it looks as if the leadership in the Western Cape might be up for grabs; however, almost a fifth (17%) of voters have refused to answer the question,” the report reads.
The DA has claimed victory in the Western Cape since it attained 51% of the vote in the 2009 general election. In 2014, the DA attained 59% of the vote in the province.