US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at the Resch Expo Center in Green Bay, Wisconsin, October 17, 2024. (Photo by KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI / AFP)
The US election landscape is a battlefield as we head towards November.
In this highly polarised environment, Donald Trump’s penchant for falsehoods, demagoguery and overt racism are not enough to sink him in the polls. On the contrary, Kamala Harris has struggled to break away in the race and secure a definitive lead.
According to the FiveThirtyEight daily election tracker, as of 23 October, Harris was ahead of Trump in the national polls by a mere 1.8%.
This slim margin, however, belies the more crucial reality of the swing states. In pivotal battlegrounds, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, the two candidates are neck and neck, separated by less than half a percentage point. Victory in these states is almost certain to determine who will take the White House.
The inability of Harris and the Democratic Party to capitalise on the momentum that followed her late entry into the race is telling. After Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Harris initially enjoyed a significant surge in support. However, her failure to maintain that lead speaks volumes about the Democratic Party’s failure to craft a message that resonates with voters.
More than an electoral contest, this is an indictment of the party’s messaging machine, which appears to be disconnected from key issues driving voter behaviour in 2024.
One of the critical areas where Harris and the Democrats are falling short is their failure to engage younger voters, a critical base for the party. A clear example of this disconnection is the party’s handling of Israel’s war in Gaza, an issue that has alienated many younger and progressive voters.
The mass protests at elite US universities earlier this year, which were met with violent repression by the Biden administration, reflect the stark reality of the growing rift between the Democratic establishment and a younger, more radical, constituency.
The Biden administration’s half-hearted criticism of Israel’s blockade of humanitarian aid to Gaza came too late, and with no clear consequences, adding to the disillusionment felt by many young voters.
Harris has, unfortunately, aligned herself closely with the Biden administration’s stance on Gaza. Instead of distancing herself from policies that many see as enabling genocide, she has adopted the same language that Western politicians regularly employ, asserting Israel’s right to defend itself without addressing the broader context of oppression in Gaza.
This lack of differentiation is damaging her campaign, as voters, particularly younger and more progressive voters, fail to see how her presidency would be any different from Biden’s when it comes to critical foreign policy issues like Gaza.
The continued escalation of the war, even after the decimation of Hamas’s leadership, begs the questions: “What exactly constitutes Israel’s defence for the US establishment and when will it end?” Harris’s unwillingness to confront these hard questions has only deepened scepticism among progressive voters.
Beyond foreign policy, Harris is also struggling to galvanise support among African American voters, particularly black men, who are a crucial demographic for any Democratic presidential candidate.
There is a long-standing cultural dynamic in black communities that can make them more critical of one another than of other ethnic groups. Harris, who has rarely spoken about her estranged black father, and whose campaign has made little effort to embrace her black heritage, has inadvertently alienated some black voters, especially men.
Politics is more than just numbers and policy; it is deeply emotional and Harris’s perceived distancing from her black identity has hurt her appeal.
Harris’s record as a prosecutor and California’s attorney general has also raised concerns within the black community. In 2014, she opposed calls for independent investigations into fatal police shootings, a stance that many activists felt protected law enforcement at the expense of justice.
In addition, the perception that her policies disproportionately harmed black men during her tenure as attorney general persists, despite her attempts to distance herself from that legacy.
These issues have contributed to her difficulty in winning over this crucial voter bloc, with only 70% of black men expressing support for her, compared to the 85% who supported Biden in 2020.
Former president Barack Obama’s attempt to defend Harris has also backfired. In trying to rally support for her, Obama suggested that the tepid response from black men could be attributed to sexism, asserting that Harris was being penalised for her gender.
While hypermasculinity certainly plays a role in this election, Obama’s comments have been seen as dismissive of legitimate concerns black men have regarding Harris’s policy positions and her perceived disconnect from their lived experiences.
For many black men, who have remained one of the most loyal voting blocs for Democrats, this felt like a betrayal. They see themselves as having been consistently sidelined by the party, with their issues only receiving attention during election cycles.
This discontent is particularly pronounced among young black men, many of whom feel that their concerns about economic opportunity, police violence and structural inequality are ignored by the Democratic Party.
Trump, despite being a figure they might loathe on many levels, speaks to these frustrations. His rhetoric about masculinity, strength and defying the establishment resonates with young black men who feel left behind and under constant scrutiny.
In Trump’s world, being a man is about power, wealth and not needing to apologise for one’s success or desires. For some young black men, Trump’s brashness and hypermasculinity represent an alternative to the invisibility they often experience in US society.
This attraction to Trump is compounded by his association with Elon Musk, another figure of hypermasculine success. For a generation of men who feel undervalued, Musk represents the ultimate fantasy — boundless wealth, influence and power, accompanied by an air of independence from social conventions.
While the Democratic Party continues to assume the loyalty of black men, Trump has recognised the opportunity to exploit their frustrations and make inroads with this demographic.
Harris faces a steep uphill battle if she hopes to win this election. She needs every voter who supported Biden to turn out for her but that is no easy task given the growing disillusionment within the Democratic base.
Her challenge is compounded by the fact that the Republicans who rejected Trump in the last election are not guaranteed to support her either. Meanwhile, Trump’s task is simpler — energise his base, bring back those who supported him in 2020 and court the new followers he has gained since then.
The close race between Harris and Trump in such a divided political climate is a testament to the deep rifts in US society. Regardless of who wins in November, the next president will inherit a deeply fractured nation that continues to battle itself, both politically and culturally.
Whichever candidate wins on 5 November will have to govern over a bitterly divided country, a country that is at war with itself.
Nontobeko Hlela is a research fellow with the Institute for Pan African Thought & Conversation in Johannesburg and a Non-Resident Fellow on the Global South with the Quincy Institute in Washington.