Ramaphosa’s problem: The rift between Mantashe and Gordhan

With President Cyril Ramaphosa having solidified his dominance in the ANC’s highest decision-making body, the national executive committee (NEC), and its national working committee (NWC), it is likely that he will reconfigure his cabinet after he delivers the State of the Nation address on 9  February. 

ANC insiders said newly elected ANC deputy president Paul Mashatile will probably be sworn in at parliament on Monday, giving Ramaphosa all the ingredients he needs to reshuffle the executive. 

Mashatile has been waiting in the wings for the incumbent deputy president, David Mabuza, to move out of his Union Building office after he failed to make it to the top seven of the ANC in December. 

Mabuza has already made clear his intention to resign. 

Ramaphosa and his ally, newly elected secretary general Fikile Mbalula, have been teasing a reshuffle since they were elected in December at the party’s national conference. 

Ramaphosa received a clear mandate from the ANC delegates, who chose to elect some of his key lieutenants to the NEC and to the top seven. 

He was further strengthened by the recent appointments to the national working committee, the party’s administrative arm. 

This signalled to the Ramaphosa camp the president has the cushion he needs to make decisive changes in the party and in his cabinet. 

Ramaphosa may have been the biggest winner in the NEC meeting last weekend, but the rift between the ANC national chairperson and mineral resources and energy minister, Gwede Mantashe, and Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan presents difficulties for the president. 

NEC members are said to have been frustrated by the two cabinet ministers, who each made presentations on the energy crisis that contradicted each other, according to two party leaders who attended the marathon NEC meeting. 

Other than the pending Phala Phala reports by state security agencies, the energy crisis is the only missile that ANC leaders are concerned will tank the party’s prospects of retaining power in the 2024 general elections. 

The public protector’s office has indicated that it had concluded its investigation into a complaint about the theft of foreign currency from Ramaphosa’s Limpopo game farm. 

NEC members are said to have been scathing about the party president allowing Mantashe and Gordhan to produce contradicting reports on the energy crisis. 

“There were those who are anti-Pravin who blamed him for the energy crisis, but most of us were disappointed that the president is allowing the two ministers to continue with their turf wars and doing nothing [about it],” one NEC member said. 

Another high-ranking NEC member said Ramaphosa needed to be more decisive and show leadership regarding the country’s energy crisis. 

“Some of us said to the president that he should have forced the two ministers to make a unified presentation. They should sit together and craft a way forward.” 

According to insiders, Gordhan’s presentation on the energy crisis included: 

• An immediate focus on restoring additional units to operation and arresting a further decline of operating performance; 

• Securing power in the short term through leveraging surplus capacity from existing generators and securing additional power on an emergency basis;

• Additional capacity unlocked by interventions are an estimate and highly dependent on enabling conditions being put in place without delay;

• Eskom can guarantee 26 000 megawatts on a reliable basis from its available 81 units;

• An additional 6 000MW is at risk from units that are unreliable or prone to breaking down; 

• To cater for unplanned load losses, between 4 000 and 6 000MW must be added to the system to meet peak winter demand of 32 000MW;

• To end load-shedding, priority should be on the decisions and actions that must be taken to ensure that additional capacity is materialised; and

• Investment in distribution and transmission infrastructure will be crucial to facilitate the connection of additional capacity to the grid. 

The NEC leaders said the president would also need to be decisive regarding the implementation of the ANC’s resolution to move the power utility to the energy ministry.

But others were of the view that the reconfiguration of the energy ministry would be a threat to the ANC’s general election ambitions, saying moving Eskom on the eve of the elections was too late. 

Another NEC member said one thing that stood out in the presentations by the ministers was the difference in the time frames predicted for the recovery of Eskom.

While Mantashe insisted that Eskom could recover in the next six to 12 months, Gordhan said that it would probably only recover in 2025. 

“When Gordhan made his presentation the reception was lukewarm, while Mantashe would receive applause every now and again. It’s clear that in both the NWC and the NEC, Mantashe has sympathisers,” the NEC member said.

“I don’t think they delivered contradicting presentations. It’s just that Gordhan was more holistic talking about corruption, the structural problems at Eskom, other forms of crime that affect the power utility, engineering and management problems as well as skills capacity, while Mantashe looked at policy issues, as he should.” 

One NEC member who is sympathetic to Mantashe said the resolution by the ANC to move Eskom to the energy ministry would be the biggest source of conflict for the president. 

“Despite Eskom being weak, it has been used as a cash cow for some through diesel and gas. If it goes to the energy ministry others in the public enterprises ministry will feel the sting. Another issue is that moving a state-owned enterprise of that magnitude is a vote of no confidence against the executive member [Gordhan] in charge. That is where you will get conflict,” the source said. 

Gordhan and Mantashe are Ramaphosa’s most powerful allies in his cabinet. The two ministers were credited for having helped the president get elected in 2017. 

And Mantashe solidified his status in the Ramaphosa camp by helping him weather the storm of the Phala Phala scandal in parliament and within the party.

“If you take it in competition in the cabinet, Eskom gives you a better proximity to the president, so any one of the ministers will want it to be closer to the president. The Eskom challenge is going to be part of his [Ramaphosa’s] biggest test ­— but the other point he needs to work on in preparation for 2024 is to walk the talk,” the NEC member said.

Part of Mantashe’s presentation in the NEC meeting included that Eskom’s infrastructure and fleet was largely reliant on fossil fuels. Mantashe is said to have raised concern over the messaging around independent power producers as the key to the energy crisis. 

“Mantashe said it’s a pipe dream to think IPPs [independent power producers] can help us now. We can fuse them in phases. Ramaphosa needs to appreciate our current infrastructure and that our current fleet is still on fossil fuel. We must work on the current maintenance plan and deal with five of the 11 generators we must be able to stabilise,” the NEC member said.

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