South Africa’s summer of extremes

South Africa is experiencing a “summer of extremes”, as devastating floods in Limpopo and Mpumalanga, widespread wildfires in the Western and Eastern Cape and growing water shortages along the Garden Route converge to highlight the accelerating impacts of climate change.

New data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) confirmed that global temperatures have already warmed by about 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels.

“What this means is that we are no longer approaching dangerous warming globally; we are already seeing these impacts,” warned WWF South Africa, pointing to South Africa’s current summer as a stark example. 

In the Western Cape, prolonged hot, dry and windy conditions have driven a wave of wildfires that have burned more than 100 000ha, leaving farmers counting losses and prompting calls for a provincial state of disaster.. 

In Limpopo and Mpumalanga, an extended tropical weather system — fuelled by unusually warm waters in the Mozambique Channel — unleashed torrential rainfall and severe flooding that killed 37 people and has been declared a national disaster. 

Roads were destroyed, homes washed away and families displaced while schooling was disrupted across wide areas. Tourism hubs linked to the Kruger National Park and surrounding gateway towns were also severely affected. 

Meanwhile, along the Garden Route, Knysna and other coastal towns are grappling with water supply challenges, while early warnings suggest the City of. Cape Town may once again face water stress. 

Knysna’s severe water supply crisis stems from a protracted dry season and low rainfall, combined with high seasonal demand and long-standing infrastructure problems. Its main reservoir, the Akkerkloof Dam is standing at only 15% capacity, with only about 10 days of water remaining in bulk supply infrastructure.

Heavy economic, human costs

WWF South Africa that climate scientists have long cautioned that South Africa would increasingly experience these weather patterns and impacts. 

“The years 2020 to 2030 were meant to be the critical decade of action to bring runaway climate change under control and yet we are already in 2026 without having achieved any of the interim targets set by the Paris agreement,” said its senior climate specialist James Reeler.

“Our hearts go out to all those affected by recent extreme weather events. In the South African context, these events carry very heavy economic and human costs,” he said.

Reeler warned that too often, public debate centres on the cost of climate mitigation – reducing climate change — while ignoring the far higher price of inaction. 

“We need to start spending money where it counts — on limiting emissions and preparing our people for a changing climate. 

“We must cut emissions faster, work to protect and restore nature and scale solutions while the window for action remains open,” he said. “Our summer of extremes is only a small foretaste of the climate impacts that could follow if we do not act now.”

Yegeshni Moodley, the climate and energy senior campaigner at groundWork, a non-profit environmental justice organisation, agreed. She said the recent devastating floods in Limpopo, Mpumalanga and southern Mozambique reflect a pattern of increasing weather devastation globally. 

“Climate change is with us now and the marginalised are the most affected,” said Moodley. “As we continue to pump the atmosphere and oceans with greenhouse gases, we approach the world’s tipping points with alarming proximity.”

Radical action is needed to “protect each other and our lands”, she added. Climate denialism must be strongly challenged and polluters need to demonstrate commitment to reducing emissions. 

“Those who have benefited the most from utilising the carbon budget need to provide funding and technology and pay the climate debt. This will allow space for affected countries to adapt and build climate resilient infrastructure. [The] government must rebuild to withstand increasing disasters in magnitude and frequency.”

President Cyril Ramaphosa echoed these warnings during his oversight visits in recent days to flood-stricken communities in Limpopo and Mpumalanga. There, he noted how the scale of destruction underscored how climate change was already reshaping South Africa’s risk landscape.

On Monday, during a visit to Nkomazi local municipality in Mpumalanga — including Mjejana and Orlando villages —  Ramaphosa praised first responders for their swift action in affected areas.

“We are also grateful that our rescue and quick response agencies have been really up to the task,” he said. “They have responded extremely well; the South African National Defence Force, as well as the emergency services here in the province at local government level.”

He acknowledged that the growing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters meant the government would need to further strengthen its disaster response systems.

“We’re now in an era where climate change is quite evident to everyone,” the president said. “We are developing our own disaster responses so that when we have floods, fires and other forms of disasters, we are able to respond as quickly and effectively as possible … The paramount issue is to save lives because loss of life affects households and families very badly.”

“… With disasters, we can always do better, because when disaster [befalls] an area or households, we need to respond quickly,” he said.

Ramaphosa, too, reiterated the country’s call for climate finance to support countries in the Global South, which are often hardest hit by climate impacts despite contributing the least to global emissions. “We need finance because once there’s been damage like this, we need finance — almost on an annual basis now — to recover,” he said.

Against this backdrop, Amnesty International South Africa warned that the floods in Limpopo and Mpumalanga highlight the impact of extreme weather events on people’s right to life, shelter, water, food and livelihoods, said executive director Shenilla Mohamed.

“The persistent incidents of severe flooding in many parts of the country underscore the government’s obligation to urgently implement a human-rights based approach to climate change and extreme weather events.”

It must mobilise all necessary human, financial and technical resources to ensure that disaster risk reduction is fully integrated into urban planning processes, to protect people from the devastating impact of flooding. 

“The failure of the government to adequately and thoroughly realise these obligations comes at a huge cost to the human rights, lives and livelihoods of millions of people.”

The Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) said that alongside the floods in Limpopo and Mpumalanga, “we are simultaneously experiencing other climate-related disasters, including destructive wildfires in the Western Cape and the Eastern Cape, fuelled by extreme heat, as well as the declaration of a local disaster in Knysna due to the escalating water crisis.” 

These events are more than a humanitarian crisis. They are an economic shock, affecting tourism, schools and agriculture, with implications for food security and rural livelihoods, said Dorah Modise, executive director of the PCC. 

“These overlapping shocks illustrate how climate change is intensifying multi-hazard risk across regions and sectors,” she said. 

“Our previous assessment following the KwaZulu-Natal floods found that chronic under-resourcing of local government, fragmented coordination, underinvestment in prevention and preparedness, weak enforcement of land-use controls and under-maintained stormwater systems, among other drivers, significantly worsen disaster impacts.”

Extraordinary streak

Globally, the scientific signals are becoming increasingly stark. Last week, the WMO confirmed that 2025 was one of the three warmest years on record, extending what it described as an “extraordinary streak” of global heat.

“The past 11 years have been the 11 warmest on record and ocean heating continues unabated,” the agency said.

According to the WMO’s consolidated analysis of eight global datasets, the average global surface temperature in 2025 was 1.44°C above the 1850–1900 average. 

Two datasets ranked 2025 as the second-warmest year in the 176-year record, while the remaining six ranked it as the third-warmest. The past three years — 2023, 2024 and 2025 — were the warmest in all datasets.

“The year 2025 started and ended with a cooling La Niña and yet it was still one of the warmest years on record globally because of the accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo.

She warned that high land and ocean temperatures were fuelling more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall and tropical cyclones, underscoring the urgent need for effective early warning systems.

Copernicus data painted a similar picture. It confirmed that 2025 was the third-warmest year on record globally, only marginally cooler than 2023 and 2024. 

The past three years averaged more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the first time a three-year period has breached that limit.

Based on current warming trends, Copernicus scientists warned that the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C long-term target could be reached by the end of this decade — more than a decade earlier than anticipated when the agreement was signed.