Former health minister Zweli Mkhize.
While the latest scandal around President Cyril Ramaphosa — believed to have been engineered by the so-called radical economic transformation (RET) faction of the governing party — will no doubt be used as a weapon in internal battles, it will not serve Zweli Mkhize, who is on the back foot in his campaign to become ANC president in December.
Those aligned to Mkhize believe that the recent developments around Ramaphosa will only serve to create a third force which would feed from the perceived Mkhize camp.
“Do you see a likelihood of a fracture that gives rise to a third way in the Ramaphosa faction which will benefit us? No. All that can happen is that it could just resurrect some fringe campaigns and those fringe campaigns, they can only come back to feed in our base, rather than those from the other side,” on insider said.
Sources told the Mail & Guardian that Ramaphosa’s detractors within the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) are debating his removal through the party’s step-aside rule to allow deputy president David Mabuza to take over in an acting position.
While Mabuza is seen to be weakened as no regions or provinces have pronounced on him for another term in the ANC’s top six, some insiders say he would likely use this time to garner support should he be allowed to act as the party president.
Mkhize supporters argue that the step aside rule — which stipulates that those facing criminal charges should step away from their positions for the duration — must be repealed or reviewed. This view has found expression in the KwaZulu-Natal regions which are likely to back Mkhize for a top-six position in December.
Mkhize believes he has regained momentum in his home province, with hopes of realigning with his former allies in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, but those close to him say the move against Ramaphosa by the RET faction may not necessarily be to their man’s advantage. They say this could hurt their chances of a realignment under the guise of removing the step-aside rule.
A Mkhize lobbyist said should Ramaphosa step aside, this would neither have any political value for the former health minister’s campaign, nor translate into additional support for him.
“All it does is drag both Zweli and Cyril down,” the lobbyist said, adding that the current challenge is to convince ANC members as well as the hostile public that the ruling party, through Mkhize, has a chance of redeeming itself.
“If those people, the same people who are we are looking to engage and to convince are holding on to (in our view) an irrational obsession with Cyril as the beacon of light even though they don’t believe that it can translate into the redemption of the ANC, if those people are now demoralised, disappointed by Cyril, their rationalisation will be to give up on the ANC,” they said.
“Even if we win in December, we are going to face the challenge of convincing, firstly your potential supporters, your core constituency and society at large that you can turn things around. It was always going to be a tough toll.”
The Mkhize loyalist added that the fight against Ramaphosa also deepens and entrenches the factional divide within the party, which then begs the question – How much more difficult will it be to unite the ANC after the December conference?
They said in all responses to the Digital Vibes scandal which forced Mkhize to resign as health minister, “we have steered clear of raising conspiracy theories … because you were conscious not to bring acrimonious divisions, you wanted there to be an opening to realistic possibility”.
“All we were looking for is to go back to Nasrec (venue of the ANC’s previous elective conference in 2017) to reset and say we are going to be more effective in delivering on the renewal and unity mandate. So now that you have this, and it’s polarising internally, it’s divisive within the ANC, then even if you succeed… you’re gonna find a deeply fractured party, yes, it was always gonna be so but this is only gonna make it worse.”
ANC leaders in the Ramaphosa faction have been licking their wounds after accusations of fraud and corruption were levelled against the president by former spy boss Arthur Fraser.
Those in Ramaphosa’s inner circle have closed ranks around the president, insisting on his innocence, while detractors linked to suspended ANC secretary Ace Magashule are believed to be working to make the president a casualty of the step-aside rule.
The war between the two factions was highlighted when the ANC’s national working committee met last week, where Tony Yengeni led the charge in calling for Ramaphosa to step aside.
Insiders close to Ramaphosa say that their major concern is the 2024 national elections. One party leader said for as long as Ramaphosa was subjected to the charges, the ANC would be the biggest loser in the vote.
“But we know whatever the investigations that will come if those investigations don’t corroborate that story people are still going to cry foul,” they said.
“So, it does not matter what the president says, people have already had a verdict; they have found the president guilty. Now, obviously, we are worried, we hope that there is nothing. We hope that everything is as it is told by the president.”
The Ramaphosa ally added that if the president had omitted details of the robbery at his game farm in Limpopo to law enforcement, he would have to step aside. They believed Ramaphosa’s detractors would sustain the narrative until the December conference, and that recent threats of a national shutdown had been orchestrated by those linked to the RET grouping.
“One of the things they might try is to always weaken any policy that relates to step-aside and corruption. So there’s going to be all kinds of attempts. A person like [ANC treasurer general] Paul Mashatile is going to align with Limpopo, for instance. Paul talks to everybody,” the president’s ally said.
“There’s going to be that alignment and the alignments are not only about Paul, the alignments that might be there will be alignments that are geared towards weakening those who support the president. That is why, for the first time, you don’t know who is going to be the secretary general, you don’t know who is going to be the deputy secretary general, and the campaign is very technical. You don’t have to move fast on everything, you have to observe things.”
The insider said the Ramaphosa faction was not a homogeneous group, with three camps split according to geography, youth and gender. There was a strong group of young leaders who wanted to be heard, alongside the old guard, who were accused of not embracing party leadership.
“Now, that is a problem within the Ramaphosa group. It’s not a big problem, it can be overcome. But if there are no discussions, we’re all politicians, everybody takes a step that he thinks will help him politically, and nobody’s going to leave his future in the hands of others. So it’s about numbers, but it’s about diversity. First is youth, second is gender, third is geographical representation.”
The ally said that while the inner core of the RET grouping aligned to Jacob Zuma has been together since the ANC’s 2007 conference in Polokwane, the Ramaphosa group formally aligned in 2017.
“So they don’t have to convince each other on the position, they only have to convince one another around their enemy, or their opponent. So the support for the president is not homogeneous, it’s diverse and the approach to challenges are diverse,” they said.
“So you will need to do a lot of persuasion at that level – it’s a group that engages quite strongly with each. It’s a grouping that looks at all kinds of situations and most importantly, where does the ANC benefit or how do you keep the ANC’s image intact.Unfortunately in this situation, it’s not easy because you also have to respond to attacks from outside.”
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