Don’t kid yourself, Werner Greef’s no King Canute. That last-gasp try a fortnight ago was timeous but it didn’t represent the turning of the tide. The Wallabies, after all, hadn’t beaten the Springboks on the highveld in almost 40 years.
With the exception of a Tri-Nations triumph in 1998, Springbok rugby has been in steady decline since the World Cup triumph. And, despite those marvellous moments at the death at Ellis Park, worse may be to come because the cash cow that has provided around 80% of South African rugby’s cash-flow since 1995 is set to leave town. A few weeks ago it was speculated that the South African Rugby Football Union (Sarfu) was poised to chuck it all in with its Tri-Nations partners and link up with an expanded Six Nations in Europe. The story was carried in Britain’s Sunday Times and quoted Rian Oberholzer, managing director of SARugby, as saying his union was ”dissatisfied with its link with its fellow Sanzar unions”.
Though hotly denied from the fourth floor of the Sports Science Institute you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to sense that all is not well with the Sanzar partnership. The stripping of New Zealand’s co-hosting of next year’s World Cup and the de-railing of plans to expand the Super 12 to 14 teams are just the most obvious of examples. But to use those as the reasons why Oberholzer may be dropping the odd, and perhaps occasionally indiscreet, hint that a major change is in the offing would be to miss the point — which is that, despite the apparent benefits of creating an axis that draws in three of the world game’s super- powers, the long-term interests of the South African game will be best served by being in league with the likes of Italy and Ireland.
The argument in favour of turning our backs on Australia and New Zealand is compelling. Those who still embrace the amateur ethos should avert their eyes. You see, it all boils down to rands and cents. To explain why, let’s identify South African rugby’s two biggest problems: firstly, the national team and Super 12 franchises get beaten far too often and, secondly, our weakening currency will only lead to more of our top players leaving these shores to seek bigger pay packets elsewhere. It’s a vicious circle: the more the rand slides, the more players leave, the weaker the national and Super 12 teams become and, consequently, the more often they lose. But before you groan, allow me to explain: it’s not all about turning our backs on tough opposition in favour of soft victories. By linking up with Europe, our national game will, economically speaking at least, join the euro zone.
Professional sport is driven by money derived from television rights. Around 80% of Sarfu’s cash comes from Sanzar’s $550-million deal with Rupert Murdoch. That covers a period of 10 years and comes up for renewal in three years’ time. When that happens it’s unlikely Oberholzer will come out of it as well as his father-in-law did in 1995. Quite apart from the fact that Louis Luyt’s deal with Newscorp was a once-off special offer because of the game’s transitional situation there has in the meantime been a cooling off in the television rights business. The collapse of companies like Kirsch in Germany and ITV Digital in Britain have alerted TV companies to the folly of colleagues who for two decades have been paying inflated sums for sports rights.
On the basis of South Africa’s geographical positioning — we share the same longitude as Europe and are, therefore, a stronger television partner than either Australia or New Zealand — Sarfu’s slice of Murdoch’s millions is greater than either of our Sanzar partners. Of the $55-million a year from the deal, 36,6% comes to South Africa. Naturally, seven years into the deal this irks our partners and they want an equal split in a new Sanzar deal. But without South Africa the tripartite arrangement collapses. The only realistic alternative the other two have is Argentina — but its economy is in crisis.
If the Boks go to Europe, the annual treks across a dozen time zones for Super 12 and Tri-Nations beatings will be a thing of the past and will be replaced by overnight flights to Europe.
Financially, both the players and the South African game will be better rewarded while the purist will probably then see the return of three- or four-Test tours by the All Blacks and Wallabies.