The ethnic and religious cauldron that is Nigeria goes to the polls today to elect a president, in what is being billed as a crucial test for democracy in Africa. Warnings of bloodshed and fraud heightened tension as 60 million registered voters prepared to cast ballots in the shadow of previous failed efforts to transfer power from one civilian administration to another.
President Olusegun Obasanjo is widely tipped to win a second term, but whether his opponents will accept the result or launch street protests is the question vexing most observers.
Muslims in the north of the country, and tribal and ethnic groups in the south, who want to get rid of Obasanjo speak of dark days ahead for the continent’s most populous country if the ballot is rigged.
Assassinations and clashes between rival groups left dozens dead in the run-up to the elections, but by Nigerian standards that is a low body count.
Parliamentary elections last Saturday gave the president’s People’s Democratic party an unexpectedly wide margin of victory, and the losers have cried foul, citing voting irregularities and intimidation.
”I can tell you that my boys are incensed. They are armed and ready,” Segun Osoba, the governor of Ogun state, told a Lagos radio station. ”If anybody tries what they did last Saturday, they will meet legitimate force.”
Obasanjo responded by accusing Osoba of sour grapes. The parliamentary vote was free and fair, as would be today’s poll, he said, warning that the security forces would crush any violent protests.
But his two main challengers for the presidency, Muhammadu Buhari and Emeka Ojukwu, have promised ”mass action” if they consider themselves cheated.
Lost in the sabre-rattling has been debate over policy. Nigeria, a regional superpower, has vast offshore oil reserves and an entrepreneurial culture, yet is an economic disaster.
Rated one of the worst countries to live in by the United Nations, its per capita gross national product of $260 is lower than it was at independence from Britain 43 years ago.
Corruption and misrule by a succession of military regimes did not end when Obasanjo’s election in 1999 ushered in a civilian, democratic era. The new dawn he promised is invisible to those still mired in poverty.
”This is no life. I have no proper job, no income for my family, just this bucket and sponge,” said Kingsley Ikiriko, 39, waiting in bare feet by an open sewer in Lagos for the chance to wash a car. ”Our so-called rulers make mistake after mistake and they never learn.”
Ayodele Seyi (28) a satellite phone engineer, was just as caustic. ”I voted in 1999 but won’t bother this time. Nothing changed. Still no street lighting, no clean water, big holes in the road.”
The president’s supporters point to successes: a mobile phone network, shorter fuel queues, prestige abroad for Africa’s biggest democracy. With his powers of patronage, the incumbent (he holds the energy portfolio) has shored up alliances.
Also working in Obasanjo’s favour is the fact that he was once Nigeria’s military dictator, but voluntarily relinquished power before being reborn as a civilian politician.
Not so his main rival, Buhari. He too is a former military dictator, but was overthrown in a coup after he jailed journalists and opponents. However, Mr Buhari’s All Nigeria People’s party calculates that his reputation for cracking down on corruption will win votes.
Diplomats worry that Obasanjo, a southern Christian, has lost support in the mostly Muslim north to Buhari’s championing of Islamic law, signs of a deepening religious fissure which has contributed to 10 000 deaths in communal rioting during the past four years.
Independent monitors will fan across the country today to observe the voting. Privately, they admit that the bar for calling the election free and fair has been set low. The consequences of destabilising the region by dubbing Nigeria’s government illegitimate are too awful to contemplate, one admits.
The Lagos newspaper This Day said all sides would try to cheat in the vote, but that should not void the result because, imperfect as it is, the candidate with the most votes was likely to win. ”It is bad for people to rig elections. But life in Nigeria is rigged. The electoral process, the political parties, the governance structure, the entire system, everything is decidedly rigged against the ordinary person.”
Cauldron of strife
Since independence in 1960, population has exploded to over 120 million, speaking 500 languages.
Mainly Muslim in north and Christian and animist in south. Poverty and unemployment have aggravated religious tension, with several northern states declaring sharia law.
Communal strife claimed 10 000 lives in past four years.
In Africa’s biggest oil producer, petro-dollars have failed to lift economy and chronic fuel shortages are seen as symbol of mismanagement. Out of 102 countries ranked for corruption, Nigeria came second. – Guardian Unlimited Â