Who are the real winners and losers in Nigeria’s elections? The idea was for the country to demonstrate its democratic credentials by holding peaceful and credible polls. For the first time, one duly elected government would transfer power to another constitutionally elected administration — and remain in office.
But were the National Assembly, presidential and gubernatorial polls free and fair? And if not, what should be the immediate priority for Nigerians faced with a flawed election and a flock of disgruntled politicians whose massive financial expenditure appears to have brought them no return?
Should Nigerians place justice and fair play at the top of their priority list? Or are stability and peace more important commodities at this point in the country’s history?
Those are the crucial questions Nigeria’s leaders and people must mull over in the coming days.
President Olusegun Obasanjo, the winner, is a retired army general and erstwhile military ruler turned new-style African democrat. He is also a born-again Christian from the dominant Yoruba tribe of the south-west.
But will his be a hollow victory?
Obasanjo’s governing People’s Democratic Party (PDP) swept the board in the legislative elections, increasing its presence in the National Assembly and unseating other non-PDP candidates in their strongholds. The same went for the powerful state governorship vote, where PDP also made a strong showing, thereby
consolidating the party’s grip on the three key institutions of government.
But the president’s disputed electoral triumph has raised eyebrows and doubts among observers and, predictably, unleashed the fury of the opposition, which feels it has been robbed of victory. Obasanjo’s rivals cried foul and pointed to gross irregularities and election fraud.
In particular, claims of overwhelming turnouts and victories for the PDP in some eastern and oil-producing southern constituencies — even though local observers reported few people queuing to vote — has caused scepticism and anger.
So, what are the options available to Nigerians?
Obasanjo’s chief challenger for the presidency, retired general Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), is another military leader turned democracy advocate. Buhari’s power base is in predominantly Muslim northern Nigeria, which has ruled Nigeria for much of its independence from Britain in 1960. He is a Muslim from the Fulani ethnic group.
For Buhari the individual’s vote was sacrosanct in the polls. “The conduct of the … elections was fraudulent and flawed. It violated the constitutional rights of millions of voters. To ask them to seek protection of their votes, and, therefore, of their rights, appears to us to be the proper role of leaders.”
After the legislative poll, which the opposition challenged, Buhari threatened “mass action” if there was perceived fraud in the presidential and gubernatorial polls. But what is his definition of “mass action”? Now that the opposition has claimed more cheating last Saturday, how will it respond?
Opposition politicians may insist on going to court and demanding a rerun. Yet every Nigerian is mindful that by refusing to concede defeat, Buhari and others could provoke mass demonstrations and trigger violence. The prospect of the attendant loss of life and property is not unfamiliar to Nigerians, who know that it is too easy for temperatures to explode.
The dread and nightmare that Nigerians can never forget is the military’s habit of stepping in at times of major instability and public disorder.
Some argue it is too early in the fledgling democracy to expect complete respect for each individual ballot and that stability is more important than anything else. As ambassador (and now Senator) Jibril Aminu remarked in the run-up to the elections, “This business about the ‘man on the street’ … [he] does not really feature too much in these things.
I am very sorry to say. This has to wait until after three or four or five elections. When the man in the street becomes the centre, then democracy will be assured. Right now, what seems to happen is that so long as the big political barons and baronesses can agree at the top, that’s it. This is what matters.”
And that is the rub.
In Nigeria the whims and priorities of politicians seem always to take precedence over the will and aspirations of the people. Bola Abdullahi, a contributor to ThisDay newspaper, has a cynical view of this sad reality.
“It is bad for people to rig elections. But life in Nigeria is a rigged life. The electoral process, the political parties, the governance structure, the entire system, everything is decidedly rigged against the ordinary person. It is, in fact, almost absurd to talk about rigging here when that is what the entire system is all about.
Unless you are a multimillionaire, you can’t even win the local council elections in
this country. This, to me, is the most fundamental rigging. But we must not, because of this, call for the cancellation of Nigeria.”
A sober observation. The obvious priorities of any leader in oil-rich Nigeria should be to ensure a better life for its 120-million people, equitably distribute the country’s wealth, reduce poverty, curb corruption, end ethnic and religious strife, provide basic amenities and infrastructure, rev up the economy and tackle deep-rooted national problems.
But playing political games, consolidating their power base, organising jamborees during election campaigns and dispensing largesse by “spraying” naira currency notes to win votes, means that for many politicians the essentials always play second fiddle to the frivolous exigencies of the battle to hold on to power.
Nigerians are under no illusions that although Obasanjo is set to start a second four-year term in office, he does so under a dark cloud.
It is clear the opposition will not sit quietly and allow Obasanjo to enjoy the trappings of office. So, instead of attending to the urgent matters of state, will the president be watching his back and fending off the angry opposition until 2007?
On Tuesday, in his acceptance speech, Obasanjo adopted an evasive approach to the opposition’s anger: “Good politicians should be good sportsmen, showing magnanimity and humility in victory and gallantry and good naturedness in defeat.”
But was it a good moment for the president to rub salt into the already raw wound of his opponents?
“Nigeria has come of age. I stretch my hand of fellowship to all my co-contestants, losers and winners, electorate, men and women ‒ join hands in the task of rebuilding and developing Nigeria,” was the president’s message.
We wait to see how Nigerians will react to his casually offered olive branch. Nobody will forget that the last time a civilian government organised elections in Nigeria, 20 years ago, a chaotic and fraudulent poll was followed by a military coup — led by Buhari.
That irony is not lost on Nigerians, who are renowned for their resilience. But they are still grappling to shed the mantle of military dictatorship that for years thwarted all attempts to inculcate a culture and tradition of democracy in West Africa’s regional giant.
Akwe Amosu is the editor-in-chief and Ofeibea Quist-Arcton the Africa correspondent of allAfrica.com