The people of Africa face a painful conundrum: ”They clearly see that political democratisation has delivered a tangible basket of political goods which they appreciate; yet they are keenly aware that economic liberalisation has left them worse off, resulting in a decline (in their human security) rather than progress,” says the latest Afrobarometer survey.
The Afrobarometer is an independent survey of the social, political and economic atmosphere in 15 countries on the continent. About 23 000 Africans were interviewed during 2002/03.
Despite their conundrum, the majority of those surveyed expected their children to live better lives than they did.
”One might conclude that this apparent optimism is either misplaced — given the continent’s economic situation; or illusory, representing the respondents’ desire not to curse their children’s future — more than a realistic assessment of their prospects.
”However, there appears to be at least some element of realism in these future projections: the more a country experiences poverty today and the less a society rates itself as wealthy, the smaller that society’s anticipated inter-generational advances in quality of life.
”Perhaps this helps to explain the apparent paradox of why most Africans display patience with economic reform, even though they clearly feel that results to date have not been positive. Sixty percent believe ‘it is necessary for us to accept some hardship now in order for the economy to get better in the future’,” explains the survey.
But, for now, the majority of those Africans interviewed endure high levels of unemployment and routinely go without necessities such as sufficient food, clean water or cash income.
When asked what it means to be poor, as many as 47% cited ”lack of food” as an answer instead of ”lack of money”. Across the 15 countries surveyed most adults faced some shortages of basic necessities.
Almost 53% of those interviewed said their family had gone without food at least once in the previous year and 18% reported that this happened regularly.
In assessing unemployment in Africa, which the survey warns has ”reached crisis proportions”, it goes on to say that joblessness ”negatively colours the general public’s view of government performance and remains a major obstacle to a more fulsome popular embrace of economic reform.
”Whereas people with jobs are prone to approve of government performance, people without jobs are a volatile political constituency.
”In the harsh light of public opinion, African governments receive low marks for economic management, especially job creation.”
Almost two-thirds (66%) of those interviewed said they were unemployed, and the majority of those were not looking for a job. Some 12% reported being employed part-time.
The majority of Africans opposed job cuts in the public service. The survey warns that resistance to civilservice retrenchment is deepening across sub-Saharan Africa, especially as people continue to view the state as ”a major and irreplaceable source of employment”. However, it comments that: ”People’s observations about the harsh social consequences of reform, and their willingness to endure them, serve as bellwether indicators of the possible future acceptance of a market-oriented economic strategy.
”In fact, economic patience has even increased over the past four years.
”This suggests that many Africans recognise that the move away fromcontrolled and corrupt economies entails short-term pain that must be endured before longer-term benefits are realised.”
On governance, the survey essentially supports the results of earlier research which found that African citizens favour a multiparty system, support democracy and reject military rule and dictatorship.
The survey found that popular commitment to democracy was directly linked to government performance, but was not fixed and tended to decline over time.
”The good news is that democratic legitimacy can be renewed, either by improved government performance or by the replacement of underperforming governments at the polls.”
Afrobarometer data indicate that across the 15 countries surveyed, large numbers of people — especially in East and Southern Africa — have either lost family or friends to the Aids pandemic or suffer significant Aids-related burdens, such as caring for orphans or sick family members. Yet ordinary Africans do not share the experts’ fears of the dire consequences of the pandemic.
With some exceptions, African populations are not even convinced that Aids constitutes a public problem worthy of government attention.
”On a continent in which many people regularly go without basic necessities, the relatively longer-term threat of Aids must stand in line behind more pressing, immediate concerns,” the survey says.
Countries featured in the survey include Nigeria, South Africa, Lesotho, Uganda, Kenya, Mozambique and Ghana.
The research partners include the Institute for Democracy in South Africa, the Centre for Democratic Development in Ghana and Michigan State University in the United States.
Africans suffer today in hope of a better tomorrow When asked what it means to be poor, 47% of Africans surveyed cited lack of food rather than lack of money A pedestrian walks past election posters in Zimbabwe’s presidential elections in 2002.