De Lille ‘more popular’ than Leon

Independent Democrats leader Patricia de Lille has emerged as the favourite opposition politician in South Africa, according to a Markinor survey.

But Inkatha Freedom Party leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi has been found to be the most trusted opposition politician in the country.

Overall, President Thabo Mbeki is the most favoured and also the most trusted politician.

The Markinor survey also showed that the ANC has the backing of 72,3% of registered voters.

Fieldwork for this poll was undertaken between January 29 and February 20 2004 and personal in-home interviews were conducted with 3 500 randomly selected respondents from all walks of life in South Africa.

The results are representative in terms of province, gender, race, age, working status and other demographic features, said Markinor.

The figures were based on the universe of eligible voters 18 years and older who are registered to vote.

On a scale of zero to 10 — where 10 meant a respondent was totally in favour of a politician and zero meant a respondent was totally against a politician — Mbeki got 6,73.

De Lille — who started her Independent Democrats a year ago after she defected from the Pan Africanist Congress — got 3,66, Buthelezi got 3,57, and official opposition Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon trailed behind the big three at 3,55. United Democratic Movement leader Bantu Holomisa came in at 3,26, in fifth place.

In sixth place was New National Party leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk at 2,79, followed by his predecessor as Western Cape premier, Peter Marais, at 2,15. African Christian Democratic Party leader Kenneth Meshoe brought up the rear at 2,13, followed by the PAC’s Motsoko Pheko at 2,02 and Freedom Front Plus leader Pieter Mulder at 2,01.

On the question of trust — where 10 meant a respondent trusted a politician totally and zero meant a respondent did not trust the politician at all — Mbeki notched up 6,69, Buthelezi came in second at 3,42, and Leon came in third this time at 3,41 ahead of De Lille, who got 3,36. They were followed by Holomisa with 3,13. Van Schalkwyk came in at just 2,71, followed by Meshoe at 2,03.

Marais — now leader of the New Labour Party — came in with 1,99 and Mulder with 1,97, followed by Pheko with 1,90.

Most voters back ANC

The survey registered the ANC as having the backing of 72,3% of registered voters.

Markinor said the deduction could be made that the ANC “has support in almost all the political parties”. This could be interpreted either that some supporters of the opposition parties don’t disagree with the policies of the ruling party, “but believe that there must be some opposition to a majority party” or that, although they might support the ANC on some issues, the ruling party doesn’t quite represent their interests.

Of DA supporters, 95,3% said they were not ANC supporters, although 3,4% said they were. Of IFP supporters 94,1% said they were not ANC supporters but 5,9% said they were. Of UDM supporters 96,2% said they were not ANC supporters but 3,8% were.

The centre-right FF+ registered 100% of their supporters as not supporting the ANC. But the PAC notched up only 67% who said they did not support the ANC while 33% said they did. The NNP registered a fairly high 8,6% of its supporters who said they were ANC supporters while 91,4% said they were not.

Mari Harris and Michael Gordon of Markinor said there was a small minority of almost 2% who identified themselves as non-ANC supporters, “but who will still cast their ballot in favour of the ruling party — this might be linked to the notion that people like to support a winner, the so-called ‘bandwagon effect'”.

Altogether 70% of voters who said they did not support the ANC said they had “always supported another political party”. A total of 57% said they felt as if the political debate in South Africa was not addressing the issues that were important. A total of 56% said they would not vote for the ANC “because the ANC government will inevitably lead us into a Zimbabwe situation”.

A total of 54% of those who fall into the opposition camp said they would not vote for any party that worked with the ANC. This was interpreted as a strong vote against the NNP’s cooperation with the ANC.

A high proportion of 28% of opposition voters said they were not sure who to vote for while 12% of the opposition camp said they probably would not vote because none of the opposition parties deserved their vote.

South African voters go to the polls on Wednesday April 14. — I-Net Bridge