The prospect of a South African city bigger than Los Angeles could be a reality as early as 2015, according to a report on the state of local cities.
The South African Cities Network (SACN)’s State of the Cities Report predicts that the Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni metropoles put together will be larger than Los Angeles, boasting a population of just more than 14-million.
The SACN was launched to encourage the exchange of information, experience and best practices on urban development and city management.
The nine SACN cities or municipalities surveyed for the report are Johannesburg, Bloemfontein, East London, Port Elizabeth, Pretoria, Durban, Pietermaritzburg, Ekurhuleni and Cape Town.
Monty Narsoo, CEO of SACN, told the Mail & Guardian that Johan- nesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni did not have distinguishable borders and would probably become even more closely linked in the next 11 years. The growth of the three cities into one would be in line with the trend in South Africa and in Africa as a whole.
Based on these projections, SACN questions whether the govern- ment’s stated emphasis on ploughing resources into rural development is appropriate for an increasingly urbanising society; and whether training and skilling programmes were in line with the needs of those communities.
“Cities do not only need to concern themselves with whether they can provide their residents with some means to earn a living. Populations may ‘float’ even when jobs are available. Either because of circumstances or because of choice, they may live in poor social environments that do not allow them to enjoy the benefits of urban life,” said the report. The report went on to say that the “lack of skills is becoming chronic. Only 26,9% of SACN city residents had a matric in 2001, and only 11,9% had any form of post-school higher education”.
Narsoo said Motherwell township in Port Elizabeth was an example of a population likely to be living in “social environments that do not allow them to enjoy the benefits of urban life”.
The Eastern Cape’s economic plan flagship, the Coega Project, with all its First-World technology and industries, was going to be a stone’s throw from Motherwell — an effectively Third-World area unlikely to be able to supply Coega with its labour needs.
“That is why it is necessary [for municipalities] that when they plan, they do not only plan for municipal needs but establish with the private sector and parastatals what their needs will be, and then [establish] with tertiary institutions to ensure they produce skills needed in the private sector.
“For example, if Johannesburg wants to be the telecommunications heartland, has it negotiated with Telkom to say what type of bandwidth they will need for that?” A municipality, he pointed out, “is not just [about] water and bills”.
He said the growth of a city’s population usually corresponded with an economic boom. The 2001 census, compared to the 1996 headcount, shows only Johannesburg and Pretoria populations currently growing above the national average of 4% a year. This growth in the numbers of inhabitants meant bigger markets for the economy and therefore potential for greater profit margins.
“Not all of the nine SACN cities are growing equally fast. Four of the cities are growing at a rate less than that of the South African population outside the country’s 21 largest urban centres,” said the report.
The impact of HIV/Aids on city populations was not yet evident, but it was only a matter of time before it was. “Cities will not escape the effects of the pandemic. In fact, they may be worse affected if late-stage Aids drives migrants to seek family care and more dignified deaths back in the rural areas.” The reduction of its economically active population — whether through death or return to rural areas — would rob the cities of their lifeblood, thus precipitating their economic decline.