/ 30 November 2004

Sleepless in Siberia

The battle for control of Russia’s biggest oil company, Yukos, intensified last week with the government setting a date of December 19 for an auction of the company’s main production unit, and shareholders hitting back with threats of prolonged litigation.

Yukos’s core shareholder group last Tuesday launched legal proceedings against the Kremlin under the International Energy Charter and says it will sue the company that wins the Siberian unit, Yuganskneftgaz, in a last attempt to frighten off bidders.

Yukos’s back-tax bill has grown to more than $24-billion. It is expected to face ruin after the auction.

With the starting price set at just $8,65-billion, far less than the $14,7-billion to $17,3-billion valuation by the government-appointed investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, the company may face further sell-offs to cover the tax bill. It has so far paid only $4-billion.

Group Menatep, through which the jailed tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky owns a majority share in Yukos, has promised that the next owner of Yugansk will face lengthy litigation. ”Their [the government’s] mission is to destroy the company,” said Robert Amsterdam, Khodorkovsky’s lawyer.

Yukos has scheduled an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting for December 20 to discuss the company’s possible bankruptcy, though company executives have suggested the auction may force Yukos into bankruptcy sooner.

The auction announcement could lead to new uncertainty on world oil markets as the Russian government’s 16-month legal onslaught against Yukos, which produces more oil than Libya, moves into a final decisive phase.

The sale looks likely to open the way for greater state dominance over the oil sector if, as expected, Gazprom, which is controlled by the Russian government, makes a winning bid. However, it could force Yukos to retaliate by filing for bankruptcy, a situation President Vladimir Putin has said he wants to avoid. The news sent Yukos shares tumbling 22% to $2,29.

Analysts said they doubted any foreign oil company would bid for the unit because of the potential legal risks involved. A BP spokesperson ruled out bidding, while Royal Dutch Shell has refused to comment.

The Russian Economy Minister, German Gref, said on Monday that no local company is capable of buying Yugansk on its own, raising speculation that Gazprom might bid with a foreign firm such as Germany’s E.ON, Italy’s ENI or even Shell. China National Petroleum Corporation, the Chinese state energy firm, has already signalled its intention to participate at the auction.

Yukos’s management and Group Group Menatep previously pledged to do their utmost to maintain output at the oil major. But this week Khodorkovsky appeared to issue a veiled warning that he could no longer vouch for the stability of supplies.

”These actions are putting all the responsibility for the operations of very dangerous Yukos production facilities, for supplies to regions, for social benefits to workers, on the government,” he said in a statement issued via his lawyers. ”Mikhail Khodorkovsky hopes that this responsibility is exactly what [the government is] striving for.” — Â