Rallying behind former deputy president Jacob Zuma is a coalition of trade union, communist, youth and regional interests organised into the Friends of Jacob Zuma Trust. Borrowing the idea from the anti-apartheid struggle, the trust will raise funds from sympathetic business people and members. It plans a million-signature campaign as well as rallies and protests during Zuma’s October trial.
How strong is the campaign?
With premier and African National Congress leader S’bu Ndebele increasingly looking a lame duck, Zuma enjoys majority support in his KwaZulu-Natal bastion — also the province with most (75 000) paid-up ANC members.
Zuma can count on the province at the party’s 2007 national conference, which will choose a new party president.
The Eastern Cape is the ruling party’s second strongest province, with 70 000 paid-up members, but support for Zuma is probably much smaller.
Support for Zuma is not unanimous in the ANC Youth League, which lacks a solid financial base for its campaign. Recently president Fikile Mbalula and his deputy Ruben Mohlaloga clashed over a pro-Zuma discussion document written by Mbalula arguing against two separate centres of power — leadership of the ANC and South Africa.
The league has been unable to run key programmes after the ANC withdrew its R500 000 monthly grant. It also admits its investment arm, Lembede Investments, yields minimal returns.
The South African Communist Party is largely Zuma territory, though some members are uncomfortable with the outcome of the Shaik trial. It argues that Zuma must be accorded the respect he deserves, and that it is guided by the ANC’s National General Council resolution to continue backing him pending his trial.
The SACP has about 30 000 paid-up members and 500 branches. It has always relied on influential members throughout the tripartite alliance, but its influence has waned since 1994.
The Young Communist League has just 20 000 members, represented by 600 delegates at its recent policy conference. It claims 10 000 young people came to hear the conference resolutions, showing it was a force to be reckoned with.
Exact figures are unavailable, but the league claims “hundreds of branches” across all provinces. It is strongest in Gauteng and Limpopo.
South African Students’ Congress (Sasco) claims 100 000 paid-up members across all tertiary campuses and control of nine in 10 SRCs. But insiders say no more than a few hundred students per campus are card-carrying members.
Though independent, Sasco is linked to the ANC and its youth wing. Earlier this year it led protests over financial exclusions, but it is regarded as a largely spent force.