During dotboom the geeks were cool. Takkies, jeans and T-shirts were to replace ties and sensible shoes in the corridors of power. Boardrooms were to be replaced by lounges with beanbags and foosball tables. The pimply dotcom kids were ushering in a new economy built around the internet and showing the old world how it was done.
Back in the ’90s, every day you read something about a new, crazy dotcom start-up, backed by millions. Living in the ’90s, writes the Guardian, and having no involvement in a dotcom startup, was like living in the ’60s and not smoking. The dotcom generation was a cultural phenomenon. “The uniform of combat pants and foosball and inflatable aliens were de rigueur.”
But the geeks are dressing smarter these days. Not because they are getting older, but because they are desperate to prove their credibility again. Most are a lot more self-effacing and speak fondly, with a mild embarrassment, of the gold-rush era. Some still wear their striped takkies. But many now wear their smart white shirts and sensible shoes to show the old guys that they are serious about business now.
Although the online ad revenue graph is starting to point upwards again, nobody is getting hysterical about it. Apart from the gurgling and guffawing over Google’s overvalued stock, there’s more of a sober feel in the online industry these days.
So here we sit, cautiously optimistic, mindful of the reality on the ground, and with a steady eye on revenues rather than creating unsustainable publishing businesses based on fresh-air predictions.
But let’s check the facts. In the UK, online ad spend is set to surpass that of radio. In the US, the Economist predicts that the combined advertising revenues of Google and Yahoo! this year will rival the combined prime-time ad revenues of the three big US television networks, ABC, CBS, and NBC.
Now that’s all good and well, because we are not the US or the UK. We are a smaller, developing economy. Here, the internet is anything but a mass medium, probably only accounting for less than 10 percent of the country’s population. That’s tiny.
Despite this, the country is set for real online expansion.
Broadband is here. It is growing and connectivity costs are dropping. Telkom recently dropped its ADSL prices and more cuts are expected. In the US, broadband has had a profound effect on driving up internet usage, and there is no reason why it wouldn’t have a similar effect in South Africa.
People are also accessing the net from a range of cellphone and mobile devices more than ever before. Then there’s the recent arrival of 3G for computers and cellphones. Add to this the fact that computer prices are probably at their lowest ever – and you can see why SA’s online population is set to grow.
But of course the big issue is the matter of Telkom’s competition. When the Second National Operator eventually arrives we can all look forward to cheaper calls and therefore cheaper, bigger internet.
Matthew Buckland is publisher of the Mail & Guardian Online @ www.mg.co.za