British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Wednesday shifted ground on the continuing presence of British troops in Iraq by saying it was government policy to leave the country within 10 to 16 months — so long as the security situation allowed.
The prime minister also agreed with the chief of the general staff, General Sir Richard Dannatt, that the presence of British forces could become a provocation, but disagreed with Dannatt by insisting it was still the government’s aim to secure a liberal democracy in Iraq.
Blair’s comments at prime minister’s questions appear to be an attempt to pacify the restive mood of the British army, as well as to reflect the developing view in Washington that some radical policy change is imminent after the US mid-term elections.
In a change of tone, Blair told MPs the aim was to leave the Iraqi forces to organise security, adding: ”Otherwise, of course, we are a provocation rather than a help to them.”
Blair added: ”I told the [Commons] liaison committee just a few months ago: ‘I suspect over the next 18 months there will obviously be opportunities to draw down significant numbers of British troops because the capacity of the Iraqi forces will build up’. I said it then. I say it now.”
He added that in August General George Casey, US commander of forces in Iraq, also called for a withdrawal over 12 to 18 months. Casey, Blair reminded MPs, had said: ”I don’t have a date, but I can see over the next 12 to 18 months the Iraqi security forces progressing to a point where they can take on the security responsibilities for the country”.
But Blair refused to abandon his aim to secure democracy in the Middle East saying: ”I believe that the maintenance of democracy is absolutely essential for us, in Iraq and in Afghanistan.”
He added: ”I don’t want to dismay our allies or hearten our enemies by suggesting we will do anything else other than stay until the job is done.”
Washington is waiting for a report from the former secretary of state, James Baker, setting out fresh options for Iraq, including asking Iraq’s neighbours to help with security in the country.
Blair balanced his remarks with a more familiar insistence that it would be disastrous for allied forces to leave prematurely. His spokesperson said later that British troops would be provocative if they stayed after the Iraqi government had asked them to leave, or the Iraqi security forces were deemed capable of dealing with the insurgency.
The Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Menzies Campbell, said it was clear the government’s strategy had failed and the choice was stark — to change strategy or get out. But Blair insisted that only the ”progressive” withdrawal of British forces, as the Iraqi security capability built up, would work.
The United States army has reported that by August this year security responsibilities had been transferred to 86 Iraqi battalions against a target of 114, and an increase from 37 in January. But the number of Iraqi units judged to be fully operationally independent is kept as classified information. There has been widespread criticism at the poor level of training of Iraqi forces by the US army, including the lack of language skills.
Opinion-polling in Iraq conducted last month showed 71% of Iraqis want coalition troops out within a year. Seventy eight percent thought the presence of coalition troops was provoking more conflict than preventing it. Fifty-eight percent thought that if the US left within six months, it would decrease violence.
This is not a view shared by many senior Iraqi leaders, who still believe a precipitate withdrawal would increase the already high levels of violence. The number of Iraqis who believe Iraq is going in the right direction has fallen to 47%, down from 64% in January.
The polling, led by World Public Opinion was conducted between September 1 and September 4 in all 18 Iraqi provinces. – Guardian Unlimited Â