South African residential house-price growth, which hit more than 30% year-on-year in 2004, should continue moderating as higher interest rates dampen consumer demand, a survey showed on Thursday.
The Standard Bank monthly property gauge indicated house-price growth rose to 8,4% year-on-year in February from 6,9% in January.
But the rise was largely attributed to the low base of the same month last year, with no month-on-month growth in prices, after price growth slowed steadily in 2005 and 2006.
The median house price remained at R570 000, the survey showed.
”The housing market, along with other indicators of household activity, continues to show signs of moderation,” said Elna Moolman, economist at Standard Bank.
South Africa’s property sector has been coming off a residential housing boom, which until recently saw the country experiencing some of the strongest growth in the world.
However, Moolman said despite increasing pressure on households’ cash flow due to record high debt and recent interest-rate hikes, prices were unlikely to fall and should pick up again in 2008.
”Aggregate house prices are expected to show very little, if any, growth in the near term, but growth is expected to pick up towards year-end, especially if the [Reserve Bank] cuts interest rates in the final quarter of the year and early next year as we expect it to,” she said.
South Africa’s central bank hiked its repo rate by two percentage points between June and December last year, lifting the commercial banks’ prime lending rate to 12,5%.
The hikes have made record-high household debt — 73% of disposable income in the third quarter of 2006 — increasingly expensive, and raised concerns over debt arrears.
Moolman warned that the property market could suffer should households’ financial conditions deteriorate further.
”Given these and other curtailing factors impacting negatively on households’ finances, there is some concern about consumers’ financial health, which if it were to deteriorate markedly, will have severe consequences for the residential property market,” she said.
The Reserve Bank left rates unchanged in February but stressed that risks to the inflation outlook remained and that consumer spending was still too high. — Reuters