Frenzied shuttling between London and Islamabad, not-so-secret deals and the machinations of éminences grises — a power shift in Pakistan is imminent. But who will come out on top? And can he or she bring stability?
The general
Nobody needs a deal as urgently as President Pervez Musharraf. Since his botched attempt to fire the chief justice on March 9 — a miscalculation that galvanised the civilian opposition and sparked massive protests 00 his power has ebbed dramatically. The slide was accelerated by an attempt to gag the media and a bloody shooting spree by his supporters in Karachi.
Now he is isolated, unpopular and running short of options. But like so many military rulers, he considers himself indispensable and is determined to stay on.
Musharraf wants to be re-elected president for another five years in elections to be held by October 15. In theory he could pull it off — his party has the necessary parliamentary majority — but the public mood is ugly. Riots, court challenges or worse are possible.
He needs to woo Benazir Bhutto, but her price is high. In addition to removing his uniform, Bhutto wants him to dilute the powers of the presidency. If he agrees, they will divide up power. But whether the general can stomach this downgrade remains to be seen.
The lady in waiting
It has been a long and lonely exile for Benazir Bhutto, who left Pakistan amid corruption claims in 1999. Her husband, Asif Zardari, was jailed for eight years while she shuttled between London and Dubai, bringing up her children and running her party from a distance. Returning home would have meant prison.
Circumstances have swung in her favour. The military is discredited and the time is ripe for the return of a popular civilian leader. But in yoking her carriage to Musharraf, Bhutto is taking a huge risk. Idealists seeking a return to civilian rule are in revolt; her own supporters are uneasy. If a deal is reached, there is no telling whether the political poison surrounding Musharraf will dissipate. A strong opposition could make life difficult for both of them, exploiting a number of weaknesses.
Bhutto risks going down with a sinking ship. But, she argues, she has little choice as her party has been in the wilderness for 11 years and cannot afford another five. She says a deal can bring a “democratic transition” and that the military will remain powerful, no matter what comes to pass. Better to deal with the devil you know, she argues.
The wild card
Sitting in his office in London, Nawaz Sharif would prefer not to discuss the time when, as prime minister, he tried to impose sharia law on Pakistan and anoint himself “commander of the faithful”. Launched on the political scene with army support in the 1980s, Sharif has become the unlikely darling of the pro-democracy movement. He issues denunciations of dictatorship and criticism of Bhutto’s deal-making. But his transformation was wrought more by his personal enmity with Musharraf than by any principled stand.
If he returns home before mid-September, as promised, he could ruin Bhutto’s plans. But Musharraf could have his own plans to keep him away, and Sharif insists he will be brave and face jail if necessary. — Â