Two main issues are at stake in this week’s presidential and parliamentary polls. First, will Ghana maintain or even improve its record of relatively peaceful and transparent elections which result in credible outcomes that are accepted by the main contestants?
Second, will Ghana continue to show the way in West Africa and in Africa in general with respect to democratic development and good governance, and thereby defy the continental trend of botched elections and stalemated democratic experiments?
Some developments in recent months cast doubts on the prospect of holding peaceful elections on December 7. The pre-election period has seen an unexpected degree of political tension, electoral conflicts and sporadic violence, and the main opposition party, the New Democratic Congress (NDC), has forcefully expressed its lack of confidence in the Electoral Commission (EC) and, to some extent, in the entire electoral process.
Some of these developments have deep roots in the structure and culture of politics in Ghana’s fourth republic, underscoring the failure to reform the state in any significant manner. The over-centralisation of power in the presidency and within the executive branch have left the state the ultimate political trophy and the endgame of multiparty political competition in Ghana.
The tensions also underline persistent political polarisation in Ghana, and especially mutual loathing and mistrust between the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), led by President John Kufuor, and the NDC, particularly former president Jerry Rawlings and his cohorts.
Negative sentiments between the two are reinforced by a strong perception within the NDC that the Kufuor administration’s criminal prosecution of key NDC figures is politically motivated. The NDC and its supporters feel that selective justice is being meted out by the Kufuor government, while NPP supporters or sympathisers believed to be responsible for acts of corruption and violence are left untouched.
Such mistrust has fed tension ahead of the election. The NPP and its supporters are convinced that the NDC is promoting electoral violence and planning to scuttle the polls and disrupt Ghana’s progress. Similarly, the NDC appears convinced that the Kufuor administration is willing to exploit its incumbency to perpetuate its stay in power.
Adding to the tension is the relatively even electoral strength of the two main parties, stoking ambitions and allowing each of them to believe it can win if only it manipulates the electoral process a little more or is sufficiently aggressive.
Finally, lapses in the EC’s management of the 2008 elections have also contributed to tensions. The EC appeared unduly complacent, at least initially, as it was insufficiently attentive to the requirements for successful 2008 polls until almost too late in the year, then presenting the nation with a crowded and somewhat compressed election timetable. This left too little time to resolve disputes about the electoral process, such as the suspected bloated voters’ register.
One must also factor into the tension the high stakes brought about by the discovery of oil in commercial quantities off the western shores of Ghana and the expected inflow of about $3-billion of revenue a year sometime within the term of the next administration.
Some of the above developments, combined with debacles in recent polls in Africa, have certainly contributed to heightened public anxiety and a growing sense of alarm about the upcoming polls. But there are grounds for cautious optimism that the polls will not go the way of recent disastrous elections in Zimbabwe, Kenya or Nigeria.
To begin with, Ghana has a strong track record of peaceful and credible multiparty elections, going back to 1992. The independence and technical competence of the EC is also widely acknowledged. Moreover, unlike Kenyans or Zimbabweans, Ghana has generally experienced peaceful government handovers issuing from the ballot box. Importantly as well, Ghanaian political parties are hardly ethnically defined, unlike in Kenya.
The Ghanaian media and civil society have remained vibrant and vigilant. They have kept the 2008 election campaign relatively focused on the issues, with various civil society organisations holding successful debates for presidential and vice-presidential candidates and providing forums for parliamentary candidates to interact with their electorates. In addition to various religious bodies, civil society and cultural and film personalities have actively monitored the pre-election scene, with special emphasis on preventing election violence. The Coalition of Domestic Election Observers alone has trained and deployed more than 4 000 people drawn from 34 secular and religious bodies to observe the elections throughout the country. It is undertaking, for the first time, a parallel vote tabulation project.
Another encouraging fact is that there is a long history of opposition politicians conceding defeat in Ghanaian elections and, in fact, the presidential candidates in this year’s elections have comported themselves extremely well, even if the same cannot be said of their supporters.
In the long run, there is cause for optimism: the relatively even electoral strength of the two leading parties in the elections means that the polls will produce a strong opposition party, which will keep the next government on its toes.
Dr Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi is the executive director of the Ghana Centre for Democratic Development and a professor in the political science department at the University of Ghana, Legon