There are as many signs of economic progress in Zimbabwe as there are of political stagnation. The following are the good, bad and ugly features of a country slowly emerging from an eight-year nightmare:
The Good
- This week Renaissance Capital, which manages foreign funds in Zimbabwe, said trade on Zimbabwe’s stock exchange had now surpassed that in Kenya. About US$1.3-million (more than R10-million) in stock is being traded daily, up from US$50 000 (just less than R400 000) in March. Renaissance attributed the increase to growing foreign interest in Zimbabwe.
- Two investment conferences recently attracted hundreds of prospective foreign investors.
- Encouraged by ”economic gains recorded during the first half of 2009 and prospects for economic recovery to the end of the year”, Finance Minister Tendai Biti raised his growth forecast for 2009 from 2.8% to 3.7% and said that inflation will end the year lower than previously predicted.
- The decline in Zimbabwe’s agriculture, destroyed by years of anarchy on the farms, also appears to be slowing. Grain production this year will be double last year’s harvest, according to the country’s agriculture ministry, although Zimbabwe will still need to import food.
- By last Friday about 44.2-million kilograms of tobacco had been sold, beating the 42-million target, according to the Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board. The board’s head, Andrew Matibiri, said seed sales for the new season are up 70% on last year, pointing to an even larger crop in 2010. But industry officials concede that this figure remains a long way from Zimbabwe’s peak output of 200-million kilograms prior to Robert Mugabe’s land seizures.
- Despite continuing tough rhetoric from Mugabe on nationalisation, there are signs that Zimbabwe is willing to soften its investment laws. A Bill that would have allowed government to seize a majority stake in foreign-held mines has been withdrawn from Parliament according to Thankful Musukutwa, secretary for the mines ministry.
- There have been small victories in terms of media freedom. Information Minister Webster Shamu lifted a ban on CNN and the BBC this week, saying, in a letter, that discussions with the two organisations had ”cleared matters and provided a basis for a sustainable relationship of trust, respect and mutual benefit”. The two were now ”free to resume activities in Zimbabwe in terms of the country’s laws”.
- Government has also removed a 40% duty that was slapped on foreign newspapers to try to restrict their entry into Zimbabwe, where state media still dominate. News that two independent daily newspapers are close to being licensed has also raised hopes that the media space is finally being opened up.
The Bad
The visible gains on the economic front are threatened by the continuing political uncertainty:
- Although CNN and the BBC are allowed back into the country, there is still no sign that the laws Mugabe used to stifle the media will be repealed soon. Under existing laws foreign organisations wishing to set up a bureau must pay licence fees of up to $30 000 (almost R250 000), while foreign journalists
- are charged $1 000 (almost R8 000) in accreditation fees.
Mugabe’s spokesperson, George Charamba, suggested this week that social networking sites such as Twitter were ”the West’s new platform to attack progressive governments”. Twitter had been used to destabilise Iran, he said, and Zimbabwe was ”looking into” the threat posed to Zimbabwe.
The Ugly
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The MDC said the pattern of intimidation of its members continues. On Monday a bullet was left in an envelope outside the home of Biti, who is also MDC secretary general. His party immediately said this was a death threat to force him to let up on his reforms. The ”bullet-in-a-box” is an old trick, used countless times on Zimbabwean journalists and activists.
- As Zimbabwe marked three ”peace days” from July 24 to 26, rights groups reported that new militia bases were being established across the country. Ebba Katiyo, an MDC activist, told journalists how she had survived an axe attack by a Zanu-PF gang led by her own uncle.
- On Wednesday the MDC called an emergency meeting of its MPs to discuss a series of arrests of legislators that has pared its Parliamentary majority down to just one seat.
- Six MDC MPs have now been charged with crimes ranging from theft and corruption to rape and kidnapping. Four more are being investigated for swindling the government in a farm equipment scheme. An MDC MP was arrested on Tuesday for allegedly stealing a Zanu-PF official’s cellphone.
MDC MPs are angry about Morgan Tsvangirai’s failure to halt prosecutions, even though one of his ministers has joint charge of the police. Under Zimbabwean law an MP loses his or her seat if jailed for six months.