Opponents of Hugo Chávez made major gains this week in legislative elections that could weaken the president’s dominant power in Venezuela.
The Democratic Unity coalition won at least 61 of 165 seats in the assembly, overturning Chávez’s two-thirds majority and potentially inhibiting his ability to appoint judges and other officials and push through new laws.
The opposition said it had won 52% of the popular vote but that controversial changes in electoral rules favouring rural areas, where Chávez is popular, meant that support failed to translate into proportional seats.
Both sides claimed victory and momentum for the 2012 president election, in which Chávez will seek a third consecutive term. Turnout was 66%, high for a legislative election. Chávez’s allies took at least 95 seats.
The president said on Twitter that his PSUV (Venezuela’s Only Socialist Party) was the victor. “Well, my dear compatriots,” he wrote, “it has been a great election day and we have obtained a solid victory: enough to continue deepening Bolivarian and democratic socialism. We need to continue strengthening the revolution!”
He did not address supporters from the balcony of Miraflores palace, a tradition in previous elections. During the campaign, the former soldier said it was crucial to “demolish” the opposition and win at least 110 seats for the two-thirds majority required to continue to rubber-stamp his decisions. State media reported the result as confirming the country was “red, very red”, a slogan referring to the socialist party’s colour.
Aristobolu Isturiz, an assembly member and head of Chávez’s campaign, said he had hoped for a two-thirds majority, but was happy to have won a comfortable absolute majority. The opposition had been defeated, he said.
Television pictures from the rival camps told their own story: PSUV supporters in red T-shirts looking uncertain and opponents in yellow and blue T-shirts appearing upbeat. Opposition media — Venezuela is so polarised few are neutral — said the result punctured the president’s near-hegemonic power.
A decade-long authoritarian drift had been checked, said the Caracas daily, Tal Cual. “This Monday morning is clearer and brighter, we won’t allow the shadows to return.”
Ramon Guillermo Aveledo, the leader of the opposition coalition, said it had been a marvellous day but lambasted the national electoral council for an eight-hour delay before announcing the first, incomplete results at 2am local time.
The council, which mostly comprises government loyalists, listed assembly winners but failed to supply an immediate breakdown of the popular vote. This is a crucial benchmark for Chávez, who declared the election a referendum on his rule.
Opposition leaders said gerrymandering robbed them of representation proportional to their 52% of the popular vote. Some analysts estimated the opposition’s tally at 49.6%.
“It looks like a 50-50 nation, and that strengthens the opposition. If Chávez had won 53% or 54% of the popular vote, there wouldn’t have been any qualms about his controlling the assembly,” said Steve Ellner, a political analyst at the University of the East.
Such an even split suggested the government should try to modify its radical discourse and accommodate the opposition, as long as it accepted the government’s legitimacy, he said. Losing the popular vote would be a “psychological handicap” for Chávistas, said Ellner, but the president’s assembly majority was wide enough to keep his socialist agenda on track.
“This result will slow things down but it doesn’t disable him.” Since sweeping to power in 1998, Chávez has cast his revolution as that of the poor majority against wealthy oligarchs. But two years ago Caracas and other cities voted for opposition mayors and governors. Recession, inflation and crime played into the opposition’s hands again this time.
The president ‘s once-stellar approval ratings have tumbled but he remains the country’s most popular politician and he has a firm grip on all state institutions. By securing more than 58 seats, the opposition can, in theory, exert influence over appointments and new laws; if it clinches 67, it could block the president’s requests for temporary decree powers.
Aveledo warned the outgoing “moribund” pro-Chávez legislature against rushing out radical laws before the new assembly started in January 2011. —