/ 14 June 2013

Debt ratio prompts EU analysts to rethink ranking

Debt Ratio Prompts Eu Analysts To Rethink Ranking

Ireland, Greece and Portugal are labouring under debt-to-income ratios of more than 300%, figures that expose the indebtedness of eurozone governments in relation to their government revenues show.

The measure, intended to show governments' abilities to pay debts, shows that Ireland's total debt in 2012 was €192bn, or 340% of the government's income. Greece has amassed an even worse debt-to-revenue total of 351%.

Portugal came third, with a debt-to-revenue ratio of 302%, while Britain was sixth last year on the list of 27 European Union member states, with a ratio of 212%, according to calculations based on European commission figures.

Debt figures are usually calculated as a ratio of national income and expressed as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP). But national income figures reflect activity across the whole economy, whereas governments must pay debts from tax receipts and other income.

So some analysts argue a government's debt-to-revenue ratio provides a clearer picture of its ability to fund annual debt payments once interest rates are taken into account.

The United States is in even worse shape than Greece. Its $16-trillion debt is the equivalent of 105% of GDP, but more than 560% of government revenues.

Washington's debt payments are cheap after a plunge in the interest it pays on government bonds, but with revenues of only 14% of GDP compared with about 40% across much of the EU, its ability to pay is weakened.

Ireland, which is often commended for its recovery from the banking crash, has seen a sharp rise in its debt-to-revenue ratio in the past four years. In 2009 the ratio was 187%.

A year later it had jumped to 262%. However, the country appears to be in better shape when debt-to-GDP figures are used. It ranks fourth, with a 117.6% ratio, after Greece, Italy and Portugal.

Greece's performance, by contrast, has improved. It has pushed through a huge clampdown on government spending and has seen its ratio fall from 402% in 2011 to 351% in 2012.

The healthiest economies according to the debt-to-revenue measure are the Nordic nations, where last year Sweden had a 75% ratio, Denmark an 82% ratio and Finland had 99%. — © Guardian News & Media 2013