/ 23 October 2023

Elections 2024: ANC losses predicted in KZN, Gauteng

Ramaphosa Can Win Over South Africa, What About His Own Party?
File photo by Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The ANC is set to lose its majority in both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal in next year’s national and provincial elections, according to a new poll conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation and the SABI Strategy Group.

The poll says the governing party will take 43% of the vote nationally, should there be a high turnout, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) securing 25% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 16%.

In this scenario, the Multi Party Charter for South Africa (MPC), a coalition consisting of the DA, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and other opposition parties, is likely to win 36% of the vote nationally.

The survey is based on a 15 minute telephonic interview conducted with a sample of 1 500 registered voters between 11 September and 3 October this year.

It found that in a low-turnout scenario, the ANC would take 45% of the vote nationally, with the DA getting 27% and the MPC 37%.

Both scenarios see the ANC emerging as the largest party but losing its national majority and needing the EFF, its current coalition partner at local government level, to constitute a cabinet.

In the key Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, the survey also predicts serious losses for the ANC.

In Gauteng, 37% of respondents said they would vote for the ANC, equal to the number of those who said they would vote for parties in the MPC, while 18% intended to vote for the EFF. 

In KwaZulu-Natal, 32% indicated support for the ANC, compared with 27% for the IFP,  19% for the DA and 15% for the EFF.

Collectively, the MPC parties polled 46% of the vote, still short of the magic 50%+1 of the vote needed to govern the province, in which the EFF looks set to play a kingmaker role in the negotiations after the voting next year.

In the Western Cape, the DA looked as if it would retain its majority without any need for assistance, polling 56% ahead of the ANC’s 22%.

According to the survey, 80% of those polled intended voting in the coming elections, with 83% of respondents citing crime, unemployment, load-shedding and corruption as their key issues of concern.

President Cyril Ramaphosa enjoyed the highest favorability rating (42%), but had lost ground (six points) since the previous survey in November 2022, while that of EFF leader Julius Malema had risen by six points.

Ramaphosa’s party fared less well than he did personally, with more people viewing the DA favourably (37%) than the governing party, which was perceived in a positive manner by only 36% of those surveyed in the poll.

The DA’s favourability had increased by seven points, while that of the ANC had dropped by three points, over the same period.

The EFF followed in the favorability stakes with 29% and the IFP with 18%.

Nearly three-quarters of respondents (74%) said they would be happy to see South Africa governed by a coalition after the elections, however, the idea was attractive to fewer than last November (79%).

A total of 56% of respondents felt the country could be governed effectively by a coalition, with 21% favouring an ANC-EFF coalition and the same number backing the MPC, while 19% were in support of a coalition between the ANC and the DA.

Half of the respondents did not believe that parties with fundamentally differing ideals could work together to govern.

Nearly half (48%) were aware of the MPC’s existence, with 24% saying they were more likely to vote for one of the parties involved in it. Most of those polled backed DA leader John Steenhuisen as the MPC presidential candidate.